Investors may be feeling the emotional ups and downs as the markets wrestle with uncertainty, even while the VIX suggests volatility is low.
Recent swings in the S&P 500, shifting above and below critical levels, have many asking: Can the market regain its footing or is more turbulence ahead?
In today’s video, we break down four potential market scenarios for the next six weeks using a probabilistic lens. This approach helps expand how we think about possible outcomes—a crucial skill in uncertain times. Building on October’s “choose your own adventure” style video, which illustrated how markets can defy expectations, we now outline fresh scenarios. These range from a super bullish rally to 6500, a mild climb to 6200, to a super bearish decline down to SPX 5400.
We’ll also explore how upcoming events—like the Fed meeting, earnings season, and shifts in market leadership—could influence investor sentiment and market direction.
By considering these scenarios, we can stretch our thinking, expand our understanding of market conditions, and help us to prepare for what’s next.
- Will the S&P 500 resume its strong uptrend phase and potentially reach 6400 by the end of February?
- Could the mildly bullish scenario play out with the S&P barely surpassing its previous high of 6100?
- What if the super bearish scenario becomes a reality, leading the S&P to break its 200-day moving average and head towards 5400?
(Video) S&P 500 Index Analysis and Potential Forecast
Twitter: @DKellerCMT
The author may have positions in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
