With the Greek referendum coming up tomorrow, every day investors (and pros) have been trying to assess the risks. Here are a few key questions that they are asking (and attempting to answer):
1. How concerned should we be?
2. What is contagion and why should we care?
3. How can we monitor risks in Europe over the next few weeks?
Historic Vote And Negotiations
With the referendum in Greece less than 24 hours away, the uncertainty and fear for investors is building. From Reuters:
European partners say a ‘No’ vote will jeopardize Greece’s membership of the euro. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras says they are bluffing, fearing the fallout for Europe and the global economy. A ‘Yes’ vote may bring him down, ushering in a new period of political instability for a country reeling from five days of shuttered banks and rationed cash withdrawals.
What Do Investors Need To Know About Risks?
This week’s stock market video takes a comprehensive look at investment risk and Greece. The video uses facts and hard data to answer the questions:
- What are the markets telling us now about investment risk?
- How can we monitor risk as the situation evolves?
- Can we garner any clues from investor sentiment?
Polls Say It Should Be Close
Recent polls in Greece have shown a slight and significantly narrowing lead by the “vote no” camp. From Bloomberg:
Greece’s biggest newspapers called on readers to vote “Yes” in Sunday’s referendum that could determine whether the country stays in the euro. “Nai,” the Greek word for yes, was the headline of the three best-selling papers. About 10 million Greeks head to the polls on July 5 in a plebiscite over terms proposed by the country’s creditors for unlocking emergency loans. The government is campaigning on a “No” vote, with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras making almost daily live televised addresses to the nation in which he asks voters to deny demands for more austerity. Tsipras says that the vote is about austerity, and has nothing to do with Greece’s place in the euro area, which is secure.
Hope you are enjoying your holiday weekend.
Twitter: @CiovaccoCapital
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Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
