Outlook for May 6 Stock Market Futures ($ES_F – S&P 500) – With the Non farm payroll release on traders minds, charts lost 2046 support on the S&P 500 futures. Overhead supply continues to be troublesome, and buyers need a catalyst to push charts higher.
In short, stock market futures remain vulnerable to selling as long as S&P 500 futures cannot recapture an important region that spans all the way up to 2054.
If we are able to keep the 2054.5 area on any bounce, buyers will be more likely to add steam to the retrace upward back into resistance near 2061.75, and 2068.5, before sellers try to force buyers back down. If not, we’ll see that 2045-2046 again, and the drift into the eventual target at present, 2034, will likely continue. If buyers completely step out of the way, we’ll have that move into 2031. Deep pullbacks like this without any retrace intraday will bring buyers into the fray as we are still solidly in congestion.
Momentum on the four hour chart is negative, suggesting that bounces will be still be sold. Several lines of sellers are poised to prevent the advance of price upward – 2046, 2051.5 and 2054.5. Support levels sit near 2034-2031. I suspect any deep moves down created by NFP (non farm payroll) numbers, will be buy zones into resistance.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF TUESDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Outlook for Crude Oil futures (CL_F) for May 6 – Buyers are having trouble holding charts above 44.68, and above there resides much congestion into 44.90 on oil futures.
The trading range for crude oil prices suggests support action near 43.3, and resistance behavior near 45.34.
Upside trades are counter trend currently, but can be staged on the positive retest of 44.27, or a positive retest of 43.36 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 44.27 are 44.48, 44.68, 44.94, 45.14, 45.42, 45.72, 46.05, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 46.53 to 46.94, but that continues to seem extremely unlikely as overhead supply seems heavy for crude oil.
Downside trades on oil are trending right now, but seem feasible below the failed retest of 43.3, or at the failed retest of 44.57 with negative divergence – careful to watch for higher lows at the short on the resistance level. Retracement into lower levels from 44.57 give us the targets 44.27, 44.11, 43.94, 43.65, 43.53, 43.34, 43.03, and perhaps 42.9, to 42.68, and 42.34.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F) Â
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
S&P 500 futures outlook (ES_F) – Negative momentum with negative trend is still in the lead, and so far all bounces continue to be sold across stock market futures. Today’s NFP number may provide the catalyst needed for a move in either direction.
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures will be into resistance with the 4hour time frame in mind, but the best setup sits on the positive retest of 2044.5, or a bounce off 2034.5 with positive momentum – keep your eyes on 2047.25 with this 2044.5 entry. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2034.5 are 2037.25, 2040.5, 2043.75, 2047.25, 2051.5, 2054.25, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2057.5, 2060.25, 2063.5, and 2067.25. Long action is still trending over the bigger picture for now, but as momentum continues to slow, and pullbacks seem quite frequent at resistance zones, we see likelihood of pullbacks into support a very likely trajectory.
Downside trades open below the failed retest of 2046.5 or at the failed retest of 2050.25 with negative divergence. We could also take the failed retest of 2039, but watch for buyers to initially try to push the chart up against negative momentum. Retracement into lower levels from 2050.25 gives us the targets 2047, 2044.5, 2042.5, 2039.5, 2035.5, 2037.25, 2034, and perhaps 2031.25 to 2029.25.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
