S&P 500 futures for February 23 are forming a rising wedge on intraday patterns, suggesting a bounce to the north before a rejection back down to support. This could make for choppy price action on stock market futures today.
So far, S&P 500 futures are holding a congested support pattern between 1924 and 1929. Momentum is positive but pullbacks into support are very likely on stock market futures. Buyers need to defend lower support zones else we’ll chop down into 1904-1907. A bounce off 1929, or a hold at the test of 1922, gives us more expansion to the north near 1944.25 and 1946.5. This is much like yesterday’s pattern as we sit in congested zones.
Momentum on the four hour chart is mixed, but holding in positive trending territory – suggesting drifts into support that are likely to hold. Daily charts across stock market futures read momentum as trending positive, and approaching neutral territory – suggesting bounces into resistance. Moving averages on S&P 500 futures present good opportunities for buyers to enter off support tests.
Shorter time frame momentum indicators are sitting in neutral territory, but sloping up. Positive divergence is holding in longer time frames for now.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF TUESDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Outlook for Feb 23, 2016 – There is a big battleground for Crude Oil futures at 33.3-33.4 in the chart. Momentum is mixed so pullbacks to support should find buyers, and big spikes upward will find sellers. Understanding support and resistance will be your key strength as a trader today (This is true of everyday, really =) I’ve included a Crude Oil futures (CL_F) chart today with MotiveWave projections for support and resistance. See below.
Today, the trading range on crude oil futures is between 32.4 and 33.7.
Moving averages in oil are mixed across longer intraday time frames across the board but looking more positive than in days past. Four hour time frames show moving averages up, with positive momentum beneath that is waning.
Intraday long trading setups for crude oil futures suggest a long off 33.2 bounce, or 33.44 breach or retest into 33.6, 33.82, 34.07, and if buyers hold on, we’ll see 34.4 to 34.76.
Intraday short trading setups suggest a short below a 33.15 failed retest or a failed retest of 34.4 with negative divergence showing sends us to 34.04, 33.84, 33.54, 33.25, 32.87, 32.6, 32.25, 32.02, 31.89 and 31.64.
Have a look at the fibonacci price levels marked in the blog for more targets.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F) Â
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
Today’s outlook for S&P 500 futures is centered on holding support at 1923-1929 – this marks a wide zone of contention between buyers and sellers. The level to retest and hold today will be 1938. If we get over that 1939, support should hold and allow stock market futures to move into higher resistance above.
Upside motion has the best setup on the positive retest of 1933.75 (watch momentum here; it may have trouble near 1938.5)- or a retest of 1938 after expansion above 1940.75. S&P 500 futures targets from 1938 are 1941.5, 1944.25, 1946.5 and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 1950-1952. Big resistance test sits at the region between 1961-1964. Watch the higher lows to keep you on the right side of the long trade. Charts look quite weak and undecided here but the undercurrent long needs to be considered. Probabilities are somewhat of a coin toss here, and I don’t gamble so watching for resolution before staking a claim on motion.
Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 1929.25 or at the failed retest of 1936 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 1931.25 gives us the targets 1929.25, 1926.75, 1921.5, 1917.75, 1916, 1912.25 and perhaps 1904.75. If buyers do not provide support there, we’ll see the familiar 1897 – 1894 levels once more. The undercurrent looks like buyers will step in pullbacks, so pay attention to higher lows that may develop.
Have a look at the fib levels marked in the blog for more targets.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
