February 18 stock market futures charts are pointing higher and likely mean another opening gap for the cash markets. That would be the fourth day in a row as the rally has been swift.
The rally, though, has February 18 stock market futures fast approaching important resistance levels.
The Morning Report: S&P 500 Futures Support at 1916; Resistance at 1946
If you are like me, you are using the directional momentum of fast moving averages across shorter time frames to focus in on trading direction and go with the flow. This direction has confirmed being long for several days, and trimming at specific stock market futures targets and taking advantage of pullbacks to continue in the short term cycle upward.
A look at earlier posts will show the S&P 500 futures expansion price area of 1942-1960 as a potential target. We sit just above 1924 key support today. Lots of support congestion sits near 1921-1923. Recapturing and breaching 1933 will bring buyers who should send us to 1936, 1941.75, 1946.5 and possibly 1950.75. The failure to hold these expanded levels will create an intraday reversal to support regions of 1921.75, 1916.75, and 1911.75. Holding there will become an important event for February 18 stock market futures.
Momentum on the four hour chart is positive, but continues to be divergent and drifting into support. Our hyper-extension from moving averages on longer time frames have continued to allow these big bounces in stock market futures. If buyers stand firm, it is not unlikely that we expand further into higher targets mentioned above.
Shorter time frame momentum indicators are sitting in positive territory and trending upward but divergent formations are present. Longer cycles are lifting but still in negative territory. Positive divergence is taking hold in longer time frames for now. I am watching the 1942.25 area in particular for resolution above or below.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF TUESDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Crude Oil futures bounced off support yesterday and moved right into our resistance zones notes yesterday. A contract roll has the chart gapping higher as well – right into a key resistance area. Any big expansions here should make higher probability shorting areas into support below.
Today, the trading ranges for crude oil futures are between 33.08 and 33.88.
Composite charts become somewhat messy right at the contract roll, as moving averages in crude oil are mixed across longer intraday time frames across the board. Noisy trading patterns still suggest long off support to resistance and short off resistance to support. Hourly time frames show positive sloping moving averages with negative divergence underneath, suggesting tests of higher resistance ahead will fail.
Intraday long trading setups in crude oil futures suggest a long off 33.84 retest or 33.23 (with momentum showing positive, else that brings a lower high) into 34.04, 34.37 and if buyers hold on, we’ll see 34.74. This is NOT an new expansion zone in my mind here so I’m looking for the quick trades north and the rejection regions for the cycle short.
Intraday short trading setups suggest a short below a 33.23 failed retest or a failed retest of 33.98 with negative divergence showing sends us to 33.08, 32.7, 32.4, and 31.74.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES_F)
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
New support on the S&P 500 futures chart has been established at 1921-1923. Resistance lies ahead so a pullback into higher support is likely – lots of upside momentum so remember buyers will be lurking about at support levels.
Upside motion has the best setup on a positive retest of 1923.5 (watch momentum here; it may have trouble near 1929)- or a retest after expansion above 1934.5. S&P 500 futures targets from 1929 are 1931.5, 1934.25, 1937.75, 1941.5 and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 1946.5 to 1950. Big resistance test sits at the region between 1946-1951. Watch the higher lows to keep you on the right side of the long trade.
Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 1923 or at the failed retest of 1946 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 1923 gives us the targets 1921.5, 1917.75, 1916, 1912.25 and perhaps 1904.75. If buyers do not provide support there, we’ll see the familiar 1880 level once more.
Have a look at the fib levels marked over on the blog for more S&P 500 futures price targets.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter: @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
