Stock Market Futures Higher As Traders Await BREXIT Vote

June 23 Stock Market Futures Outlook – The EU Referendum vote is today. We also have jobless claims and new home sales on the news front today.

The chart for S&P 500 futures continues to rebound, rejecting just below the top of the range we had set at 2104 in the trade setups. Resistance holds between 2104 and 2107. Support levels still look like the 2075.75 – 2078 region. Bullish formations are now in charge across stock market futures at this time as prices hold well above yesterday’s congestion.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION

E-mini S&P Futures

June 23 Stock Market Futures Outlook (ES_F) –

Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2097.25, or a positive retest of 2092.5 with positive momentum. Range upside is limited until the vote. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2092.5 are.5, 2096.75, 2098.25, 2099.75, 2102, 2104.5, 2107.25, and perhaps 2108.75 (big resistance), and 2110.25 to 2112.5, if power remains with the buyers. We are sitting near new support – old resistance near 2097.5. Selling pressing will likely accelerate below 2076.25, and will likely drift into 2071.

Downside trades on S&P 500 futures- Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2090.25 or at the failed retest of 2102 with negative divergence. It is important to watch for higher lows to develop with the 2102 entry, as the chart may be attempting recovery. Retracement into lower levels from 2102 gives us the targets 2097.25, 2094.5, 2092.5, 2088.75, 2087.25, 2084.25, 2082.5, 2078.75, 2075.75, 2073.25, 2071.25 (big support), 2068.5, 2066.5, 2064.5, 2061.75, and perhaps back to 2061.25.

Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.

Nasdaq Futures

June 23 Stock Market Futures Outlook (NQ_F) – Nasdaq futures rallied into resistance on our fib charts near 4455 before rejecting. It still holds the region above 4431, but a failed retest there will embolden sellers to drive the chart into support levels below near 4424. Deeper support still sits near 4391. Momentum is positive, but neutral from an intraday perspective.

Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4442.5, or a positive retest of 4433.75 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Big resistance sits at 4454.75. Watch for the lower high to develop in the long opening at 4433.75, and for resistance to show up at 4437, as momentum may shift to sellers with the dip lower. Targets from 4433.75 are 4435.75, 4437.5, 4443.25, 4449.25, 4454.5, and 4463.5. Range expansions above 4463.5 could push us into 4472-4478.

Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4433.25 or at the failed retest of 4454.5 with negative divergence. If range expands positively, we will watch for another shorting event up near 4567. Buyers continue to successfully stage bounces off higher lows to keep the move upward going. Retracement into lower levels from 4454.5 gives us the targets 4437.25, 4433.75, 4429.75, 4424.75, 4417.75, 4414.75, 4409.75, 4405.5, 4401.75, 4397.25, 4394.5, 4389.5, 4384.75, and perhaps 4383.5, if sellers take over – that puts us at a retrace to the top of the current open gap.

Crude Oil

Crude Oil Trading Outlook for June 23 (CL_F) – The oil chart expanded, but rejected resistance near 50.03, with the API report showing a drop in inventories, and the EIA reporting a significantly lower drop. News this morning is emphasizing the increase in the use of gasoline among Americans. All of which gives pullbacks a solid space to see buyers step in. Buyers are fiercely defending 49.04-49.14 as support.

The trading range for crude oil futures suggests support action near 47.76, and resistance behavior near 50.08.

Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 50.03, or at a bounce off 49.34 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 49.34 are 49.4, 49.62, 49.9, 50.03, 50.14, 50.34, 50.53 (big resistance), 50.74, 50.91, and possibly 51.12 to 51.47. Momentum is damp, but holding slightly positive.

Downside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 49.26, or at the failed retest of 49.90 with negative divergence. These setups give us targets from 49.9 into 49.74, 49.64, 49.48, 49.26, 49.12, 49.04, 48.75, 48.46, 48.34 (big support), 48.09, 47.97, 47.74, and perhaps 47.53 to 47.24.

If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.