The outlook for March 24 stock market futures has been clouded by a break of support at 2025. The tumble lower in the futures market came yesterday after a failed midday bounce.
S&P 500 futures have since continued into deeper support levels.
Durable goods and jobless claims are on the economic release numbers. S&P 500 futures price support to defend is at the region between 2021-2017.75; we broke the first levels of 2025-2027 yesterday and failed to recapture those. Resistance sits above 2032.5-2037.5. Short-term momentum across stock market futures has shifted bearish since 10am eastern yesterday. Deep support is still likely to be defended near 2009-2011. And sellers will now defend 2032-2037.5 as resistance.
Momentum on the four hour chart is now negative, and drifting a bit lower –slope of trend on longer time frames suggests buyers will still show up at key support levels. Continue to watch for lower highs to continue, if sellers hold momentum and fail price bounce off resistance. The failed retest of the 2028 area will signal more bearish momentum.
Shorter time frame momentum indicators are bearish but flattening, suggesting a bounce off these support levels being testing this morning.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF THURSDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Crude oil rolled over under reports of over supply and top heavy formations. The level for buyers to recapture is 40 for bullish action to hold. We are filling the gap between contracts. Buyers will become less aggressive if we fail the bounce to recapture 40.1 today.
Today, the trading ranges for crude oil are between 37.96 and 40.74. Breaks of these levels are likely retrace before moving again in the direction of the initial break.
Moving averages in crude oil show tight coiling, and slightly dampening momentum on longer time frames. Resistance is now lower between 40.75 and 40.1; deeper support action is likely near 37.94 and 38.48.
Intraday long trading setups for crude oil suggest a long off a breach of 39.61 positive retest (check momentum here), or 39.04 bounce and hold into 40.1, 40.47, 40.74, 41.28, 41.48, 41.74, and if buyers hold on, we’ll see 42.12 to potentially 42.46. Long trades are countertrend at this writing.
Intraday short trading setups suggest a short below a 38.9 failed retest with negative divergence, or the failed retest of 39.78 sends us back through targets at 39.6, 38.94, 38.48, 37.96, and 37.78, if sellers hang on.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES_F)
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
The outlook for March 24 stock market futures dimmed yesterday when buyers and sellers battled in contested regions near 2034 for three days before moving into lower support. The levels between 2037.5-2032 serve as front line resistance, with 2014-2017 now as support. Stretches north could see 2044.5, and deep support could be as far south at 2011 at this point. I suspect we have a greater chance of continued downside movement into support as the charts continue to look heavy, but buyers have been persistent. I’ll be watching for the lower high to signal the continued move into deeper support.
Upside motion has the best setup on the positive retest of 2028.75 or a recapture of 2017.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. S&P 500 futures targets from 2017.5 are 2020.5, 2023.25, 2026.5, 2029.25, 2031.5, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2034.75 and 2037.5. A hold there could bring the buyers back in force. Longs are still trending over the bigger picture for now, but we are in a short term cycle of negative price action.
Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 2018 or at the failed retest of 2028.5 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 2028 gives us the targets 2024.5, 2021.75, 2018.75, 2016.5, 2014.25, 2011.75, 2009.75, 2007.25, 2005.5, 2001.75, and perhaps 1997.5 if selling really takes hold (unlikely in this formation, but clearly possible if buyers lose their footing, or lower highs continue to develop).
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Thanks for reading.
Twitter: @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
