4.  Bonds – Stretched Sentiment
Our bond sentiment indicator (uses mutual fund flows, speculative futures positioning, bond market implied volatility, and bond breadth) is looking increasingly stretched – similar to the 2013 taper tantrum. At the same time, sovereign bond breadth looks to be in the process of bottoming out. Need to see a turn back in sentiment and a turn up in breadth for confirmation; it’s worth noting that previous bottoms have taken some time to form, despite sharp corrections.
Overall technical view: Bearish bias, but temper bearishness on oversold indicators
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