Outlook for S&P 500 futures for April 22 – Though I don’t often bring the big picture into focus on my intraday trading report, it is important to realize that within this noise of price action are two important elements going on in the stock market right now.
Buyers are being patient and have waited for key support areas to exercise power. This has stopped sellers in their tracks time after time over the last five weeks. At the same time, these sellers have also bounded price above and the test to move past 2105 on S&P 500 futures has failed so far.
With longer term momentum and price formations very bullish, deep pullbacks have held support to advance higher in a pattern running for 8 of the last 10 weeks (assuming we close this week positive). That’s quite bullish, even as smaller time frames so diminished strength of momentum.
Today, the weight of the week will sit on the shoulders of buyers near support levels of 2076.5 to 2082.5. Right now, sellers seem keen on keeping them below 2088. If that fight resolves upward, buying action will shift us into the regions near resistance at 2098. If not, we see the drift into 2071 on the horizon and perhaps lower. My thoughts are that to take a swing position here is a bit foolhardy in either direction because the charts do show clear directional strength. Resistance sits near 2105.75 to 2097.75. Support holds tight for now at 2076.5- 2084.
Momentum on the four hour chart is mixed as buyers defend support. Resistance is building at that previously mentioned 2088 region for now.
Shorter intraday time frame momentum indicators are negative as we test resistance near 2088, and after that 2095 is packed with sellers waiting. Buyers will try to defend the 2078-2082 region. Extreme price congestion exists here.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF THURSDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Outlook for crude oil futures for April 22 – Clear resistance around 44.55 was firmly rejected yesterday, and new support has held near 43.04. Yesterday, this level was 43.93, and I mentioned that thin volume regions would provide little support here if the chart lost that support at 43.93. Today we sit at 43.4 at the time of this writing after drifting into 43.11. I’m looking for this current pop to continue into resistance that fades just as it did yesterday. As volume remains thin, we could see sideways price action between 43.04 and 43.98.
Today, the trading ranges for crude oil are 42.54 -44.6.
Moving averages in oil are mixed on tighter intraday time frames, and bullish to mixed on longer intraday time frames – giving us a likely pattern of support bounces into resistance and reversals back into support for the day ahead. Resistance ahead will be on the watch. Upper levels, 44.89 and perhaps 45.3, have yet to be tested, and the sharp rise up leaves few catch points if the chart continues to lose buying momentum. Regions near 41-40.78 look particularly favorable as a retest below.
Intraday long trading setups on crude oil suggest a long off a 43.46 retest, or the 43.15 positive retest on the pullback (check momentum here at this low level bounce, and watch the region at 43.45 for sellers) into targets of 43.62, 43.82, 44.04, 44.37, 44.79, and if buyers hold on, we’ll see 45.13 to 45.53.
Intraday short trading setups suggest a short below a 43.24 failed retest, or the failed retest of 43.79 (with negative momentum prevailing) sends us back through targets at 43.45, 43.14, 42.94, 42.68, 42.54, 42.29, 42.07, and 41.8, if sellers hang on.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F) Â
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
S&P 500 futures outlook for April 22  – The levels between 2098.75- 2104.25 serve as front line resistance. Front line support sits near 2076.5- 2082.5 region. Price action is very muddy. Buyers are holding support for now, but with mixed momentum.
Upside motion on S&P 500 futures has the best setup on the positive retest of 2088.75 or a bounce off 2079.25 with positive momentum – eyes on resistance at 2094.75 -2098 with this 2088.75 entry. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2088.75 are 2092.25, 2095, 2097.25, 2099.25, 2101.5, 2104.5, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2106.5- but that upper level seems extremely unlikely to me at this time. Long action is still trending over the bigger picture for now, but we sit at important areas to defend as a buyer. We open the day under negative momentum after yesterday’s move down.
Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 2079 or at the failed retest of 2097.75 with negative divergence (careful here- watch for the higher low to develop to tell you that an early exit might be necessary- likely near 2092.5). Retracement into lower levels from 2097 gives us the targets 2094.75, 2092.50, 2090.75, 2088, 2085.25, 2082.5, 2079.5, 2077.5, 2074.5, and perhaps 2071.75 to 2068.5. Buyers should still come to the rescue at the deep support, particularly at the first pass.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Thanks for reading.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
