Stock market outlook for September 30, 2016 –
After breaking yesterday’s lows overnight, S&P 500 futures are bouncing into congestion. Front line resistance sits at 2149, well below the support levels assessed in yesterday’s trading. We still need to pay attention to sellers at the top of the range near 2167-2169, however sellers are clearly poised in the 2155-2157 regions this morning. Choppy formations on the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) are likely to continue. That said, I still expect buyers to come to the rescue the market at deeper support levels as momentum remains range bound.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
TODAY’S RANGE OF MOTION
S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For September 30
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2150.75, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2140.5 with upward momentum. Charts are very congested in these price ranges, so trading continues to be choppy. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2140.5 are 2144.5, 2149.25, 2154.75, 2159, 2161.5, 2165.5, 2167, 2169, 2171.5, and 2174.5.
Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2144, or at the failed retest of 2148.5 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 2148.5 give us the targets 2145.5, 2140.75, 2137.5, 2135.75, 2132.75 and 2130.5. As always, additional targets will be in the Members only portion of the morning blog, and in the live trading room.
Nasdaq Futures Trading Outlook
The NQ_F continues to give us very wide candlestick motion on hourly and 4 hour charts. Resistance sits at 4870.25 this morning, but yesterday’s support was sharply broken and retested early today. The level to watch is 4820.75 for the hold, but below that sits 4811.75. The NQ_F breakout pattern is failing so recovery is important at this stage, else we slip back into range bound behavior.
Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4848.5, or a positive retest of 4821.75 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4821.75 are 4830.5, 4834.75, 4838.5, 4844.75, 4848.25, 4852, 4857.5, 4860.5, 4865.25, 4868.5, 4870.25, 4874.75, 4876.25, 4883.5 and 4887.25.
Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4834, or at the failed retest of 4844.5 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 4844.5 are 4840.75, 4835.75, 4829.5, 4824.5, 4820.75, 4818.5, and 4811.75.
Crude Oil Trading Outlook
Oil continues to hold breakout levels as bullish traders hope for output tightening. Yesterday’s resistance level was 47.92, and though we pushed past it we have now faded below this level. It will continue to be the breakout region to hold as the chart advances, or contracts with news on the day. Support still holds at 46.50, and we hold the breakout pattern. Buyers will hold an aggressive stance as long as price action holds above 47.28.
Trading ranges on crude oil should hold between 46.5 and 48.54 in the current pattern. Traders are increasingly skittish, so be very careful on the edges of these formations, as they could continue swiftly in the direction of motion.
Upside trades on crude oil can be staged on the positive retest of 47.09, or at a positive retest off 46.6 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 46.6 are 46.89, 47.04, 47.28, 47.47, 47.61, 47.84, 47.98, and 48.14.
Downside trades on crude oil can be staged on the failed retest of 47.07, or at the failed retest of 47.8 with negative divergence. Targets from 47.8 are 47.70, 47.47, 47.14, 46.98, 46.71, 46.6, 46.42, and 46.27 t0 46.05.
If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day.
Visit TheTradingBook.com for more information.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
