Stock Market Futures Outlook for September 27, 2016 – After the Presidential debate last night, we still remain landlocked, though the charts did show quite a bit of weakness prior to the bounce. I’ll be watching the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) for signals that this weakness might continue.
S&P 500 futures still sit inside of the candle created by the first week of September, and below the critical level of 2167, which continues to hold as key resistance for now. Above there, we see 2176 as the next potential test north. Key support level for yesterday was broken, but recovered on the perceived outcome of the debate. That level remains support for today as well – 2140, and a failed retest here will give sellers a shot at running the chart lower into additional congestion near 2133, then 2126. Traders are clearly using range bound formations to determine their intraday movement.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
TODAY’S RANGE OF MOTION
S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For September 27
Upside trades – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2152.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2140.5 with upward momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2140.5 are 2145, 2149.75, 2152.5, 2156.25, 2159, 2162.75 and 2166.5. As always, additional targets will be in the Members only portion of the morning blog.
Downside trades- Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2139, or at the failed retest of 2146.5 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 2146.5 give us the targets 2144.5, 2140.75, 2136.5, and 2133.75. As always, additional targets will be in the Members only portion of the morning blog, and in the live trading room.
Nasdaq Futures
The NQ_F also lost support, and bounced once more overnight. Today, the chart gave back some of the bounce, but sits above support. As yesterday, I expect buyers to move into a perceived value territory, but a bit lower near 4809. This is the positive retest of the breakout area, with deeper support near 4801. Resistance sits at 4850.75 this morning, and the first pass test should find sellers ready to move the chart down. I still expect range bound behavior, but will be looking at order flow carefully on the edges of the range.
Upside trades – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4834, or a positive retest of 4809.25 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4809.25 are 4814.25, 4820.5, 4824.75, 4828.5, 4832.5, 4839.5, 4844.5, 4849.5, 4852.25, 4854.75, 4857.75, and 4860.5. As always, additional targets will be in the Members only portion of the morning blog, and in the live trading room.
Downside trades-Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4809, or at the failed retest of 4845.5 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 4845.5 are 4840.75, 4835.75, 4829.5, 4824.5, 4820.75, 4818.5, 4811.5, 4802.5, 4797.5, 4794.5, and 4789.75. See the blog for additional targets.
Oil
Oil prices are bouncing around with the OPEC meeting news likely to move charts. The API report expects a build today, but we are seeing a bit of support near 44.57. Today, we’ll watch 44.5 as support, and 46.6, as resistance. We hold mildly bullish formations, in general, but price action remains a bit sideways.
Trading ranges should hold between 44.4 and 46.6 in the current pattern. Breaks here will likely run into defenders of the price, but failure to recover quickly will force price in the direction of the break.
Upside trades can be staged on the positive retest of 45.49, or at a positive retest off 44.64 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 44.64 are 44.9, 45.04, 45.49, 45.9, 46.16, and 46.35. See the blog for more details on the chart action.
Downside trades can be staged on the failed retest of 44.64, or at the failed retest of 45.49 with negative divergence. Targets from 45.49 are 45.22, 45.09, 44.9, 44.72, 44.49, 44.24 and 44.04. Additional targets will be in the Members only portion of the morning blog, and in the live trading room.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter: @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
