S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For October 25

Stock Market Outlook for October 25, 2016 –

It looks like the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) might take a breather today. Price resistance for S&P 500 futures is holding at 2151 and trading patterns hold steady. The range bound activity is likely to continue. Breaching 2151 could send us up to 2156, but muted power from buyers will send us to a fade in the most probable event. Price support tests will be the ones to watch, but I suspect that our trading range tightens into the election. Price support on S&P 500 futures has moved a bit higher once more near 2138-2140.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

TODAY’S RANGE OF MOTION

S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook Chart – October 25

Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2143.75, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2139.5 with upward momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2139.5 are 2141.5, 2143.5, 2145.75, 2147.25, 2149.5, 2152, and 2156.5. As always, additional targets will be in the Members only portion of the morning blog.

Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2138.5, or at the failed retest of 2148.5(watch for the higher low if this is attempted) with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 2148.5 give us the targets of 2147, 2144.75, 2141.5, 2138.5, 2136.5, and 2134. Additional targets will be in the Members only portion of the morning blog, and in the live trading room.

Nasdaq Futures

The NQ_F tested new highs yesterday and continued to run into overnight trading hours. Its formation looks much different than the ES_F. New resistance is forming between 4919 and 4926.75. Today’s support sits in the region between 4864 and 4873.

Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4902.75, or a positive retest of 4884.75 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4884.75 are 4889.75, 4894.25, 4898.25, 4902.25, 4907.5, 4912.25, and 4919.5.

Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4889(needs negative momentum here for continuation), or at the failed retest of 4902 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 4902 are 4894.75, 4889.75, 4884.5, 4880.25, 4876.75, and 4873.75 to 4870.5.

Crude Oil

Oil report of inventories is ahead from the API after the close. The congestion regions between 50.3 and 50.64 currently hold as support, else we’ll return to the 49.6 region for a retest. I suspect buyers are pressing to keep the chart above 50. The level 49.6 remains the line in the sand for bullish versus bearish sentiment. Range bound action should continue, though there are some more negative reports floating around that could tip the balance for the short term. Big spikes in either direction will likely drift back into the region between 49.6 and 52.42 for the week.

Trading ranges for crude oil should still hold between 49.6 and 52.42 in the current pattern, but reports over the next two days may test and fail these edges before recovering. Use caution.

Upside trades on crude oil can be staged on the positive retest of 50.68, or at a positive retest off 50.08 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 50.08 are 50.24, 50.55, 50.84, 50.96, 51.09, 51.36, 51.65, 51.82, 52.02, and 52.24 to 52.42.

Downside trades on crude oil can be staged on the failed retest of 50.46, or at the failed retest of 50.94 with negative divergence. Targets from 50.94 are 50.79, 50.64, 50.38, 50.24, 50.11, and 49.96 to 49.64.

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If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.