S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For November 4

Stock Outlook for November 4, 2016 –

The S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) closed yesterday near the lows. S&P 500 futures battled support near 2084 all night, but buyers could not lift price north, as they should have. The bounces will continue to be sold as we drift into 2077, 2074 and then 2061.5, if sellers have their way and negative momentum persists. The key price area to recapture right now is 2085. And should stocks rise above that level, next up would be 2102. Tight congestion patterns still hold between 2123 and 2137 and will serve as higher resistance. Price support (though briefly broken) still holds in the regions near 2079-2083. A break below there today forces us to consider 2074-2077 as the targets below.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

TODAY’S RANGE OF MOTION

S&P 500 Futures Trading Chart – November 4

Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2086.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2080.25 with upward momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2080.25 are 2084.5, 2091.5 and 2094 to 2097, if traders attempt chart recovery.

Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2079, or at the failed retest of 2086 (watch for the higher low if this is attempted) with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 2086 give us the targets of 2082.5, 2079.75, 2077.75, and perhaps 2074.75 to 2071.50, if charts cascade again.

Nasdaq Futures

The NQ_F continues an extremely sharp drift downward, and it seems clear that both the ES_F and NQ_F have buyers on the sidelines. We sit at the bottom of a support edge near 4664. A break below there brings 4629 into view. Bounces will be sold in the current formation. Resistance lines are congested between 4684 and 4724.

Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4677.5, or a positive retest of 4668.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4668.5 are 4676.5, 4682.5, 4688.75, and 4696.75 to 4704, if buyers can find their footing.

Downside trades – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4667 (needs negative momentum here for continuation), or at the failed retest of 4714 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 4714 are 4704, 4701.25, 4689.5, 4686.5, 4682.5, 4672.25, 4667.75, and 4642.5 to 4629.5, should selling continue.

Crude Oil

Negative news on oil continues to drive the price action down. Shale producers in the US are profitable at levels above 34 (last news heard on this), and OPEC producers continue to fill tankers as shipping increases. Negative momentum holds – and bounces are very likely to be sold.

Trading ranges for crude oil futures for the week have expanded on the lower end again- 44.04 to 46.47 in the current pattern, though that upper edge seems quite far away right now.

Upside trades on crude oil can be staged on the positive retest of 44.86, or at a positive retest off 44.4 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 44.4 are 44.86, 45.04, 45.34, 45.56, 45.84, and 46.06.

Downside trades on crude oil can be staged on the failed retest of 44.4, or at the failed retest of 45.02 with negative divergence. Targets from 45.02 are 44.72, 44.4, 44.27, 44.05, 43.76, and 43.37 with continued selling.

If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day.

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If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.