Stock Market Outlook for June 30, 2016 – The end of the month and end of the quarter should bring some volatility, particularly into the end of the day. S&P 500 futures have been ruled by the buyers and the chart is now stretched well above initial targets for the week.
A band of heavy congestion sits near 2075.5 to 2082.25, and beyond that, we see 2091.25. New support for S&P 500 futures sits at 2051-2056. Momentum today suggests that we find buyers on pullbacks into support. The bullish undercurrent is quite strong, but less strong than yesterday. I expect a choppy day, but for charts to hold support. It’s been a solid recovery.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION
E-mini S&P Futures
S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook for June 30, 2016 –
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures (ES_F) – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2064.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2056.75 with positive momentum. Be very careful watching for sellers showing up near 2064, with the entry near 2056.75, as failure there could signal that we will return to lower levels. The chart could also expand above 2075.5 but see levels below for the target spots there, if you choose the long off that breach. Momentum is not ideal for a breach trade long – take profits quickly. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2056.75 are 2060.5, 2064, 2066.75, 2071.25, 2074, 2077.5, 2078.75, 2082.5, 2086, 2089.5, and 2091.25 to 2093.5.
Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2063.25 or at the failed retest of 2071.5 with negative divergence. It is important to watch for higher lows to develop with the 2071.5 entry, as the chart may be attempting a retest of the recent high under the current bullish environment. Retracement into lower levels from 2071.5 gives us the targets 2039, 2036.5, 2032.5, 2028.25, 2022.75, 2018.25, 2013.75; and if sellers catch hold, 2011.75, 2008.25, 2005.75, 2002.75, 1999.5.
Nasdaq Futures
Trading outlook for Nasdaq Futures for June 30, 2016 (NQ_F) – Nasdaq futures sit just beneath the 10 weekly simple moving average. A band of congestion holds near at 4388 through 4409. As long as we observe candlesticks giving us higher lows on hourly frames, we can see the likelihood of a continued press forward. Support is near 4356.5, and if sellers press further, deeper support lies near 4340.
Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4364.5, or a positive retest of 4356.5.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Watch for the lower high to develop in the long opening at 4356.5, if sellers try to take over intraday. Targets from 4356.5 are 4364.5, 4372.5, 4375, 4382.75, 4389, 4391.5, 4397.5, 4405, 4408.75.
Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4362 or at the failed retest of 4375 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 4375 gives us the targets 4370.75, 4364.75, 4356.5, 4348, 4342.5, 4338.5, 4330.25, 4318.5, 4309.75, 4298.5, 4295.25, 4288.5, 4283.25, and 4274.5, 4268.25, 4257.5, 4253.25, and 4243.5, if sellers accelerate the process.
Crude Oil
Trading Outlook for Crude Oil futures for June 30, 2016 (CL_F) – After a larger than expected draw in oil reported by the EIA, we ran right back into 50 before backing off– again, well above the daily targets, as with many of the instruments we watched yesterday.
The trading range on crude oil futures suggest support action near 47.8, and resistance behavior near 50.77.
Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 49.64, or at a bounce off 48.8 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 48.8 are 49.04, 49.28, 49.54, 49.9, 50.14, 50.32, and 50.54. Range expansions on surprise movement could extend to 50.74 to 51.02.
Downside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 49.46, or at the failed retest of 49.9 with negative divergence. Targets from 49.9 are 49.62, 49.3, 49.09, 48.84, 48.57, 48.34, 48.16, 47.98, 47.74, 47.48, 47.13, 46.89, 46.7, 46.44, and perhaps 46.27 to 45.87, though that seems extremely unlikely at this writing.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
