S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For September 2nd

S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Trading Outlook for September 2, 2016 – S&P 500 futures (ES_F)

The financial markets were quiet into the release of the jobs number at 8:30am. Buyers and sellers have been caught in a tug of war but that gave way to buyers after the jobs announcement. Even so, the stock market is still sitting rangebound. Price support levels were broken again yesterday, but recovered. S&P 500 futures support levels are lower now because of the breakdown noted – if the move higher fails, watch 2154.5, with 2149.5. Price resistance sits near 2181.5, with 2184.75 above that.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION

S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For September 2nd

Upside trades for S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2177.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2170.5 with upward momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2170.5 are 2172.75, 2174.5, 2177.75, 2181.5, 2184.75, 2187.75, 2189.25, and if we expand, we may stretch above into 2192 and 2194.75.

Downside trades for S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2164.75, or at the failed retest of 2174.5 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 2174.5 give us the targets 2172.5, 2170.5, 2168.75, 2165.25, 2160.5, 2158.25, 2154.75, and 2149.5, if sellers take over.

If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day.

Nasdaq Futures

The NQ_F is holding upper congestion for another morning. Support levels were broken again yesterday, but quickly recovered. The congested support levels still hold between 4774.5 and 4778.5. Breakdowns below there could stretch far lower into 4750.5. Resistance sits between 4792.25-4797.5, with expansions that could reach 4802-4806, but that seems like the outside move here.

Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4793.25, or a positive retest of 4777.75 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4777.75 are 4780.75, 4784.75, 4788.5, 4790.5, 4793.25, 4797.5, 4801.5, 4805.5, 4807.25, 4816.25, 4821.5, 4824.25, and 4829, if buyers continue to reverse the recent dip.

Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4771.5, or at the failed retest of 4784.5 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 4784.5 gives us the targets 4782, 4780.5, 4777.75, 4774, 4771.75, 4769.5, 4764.5, 4761.5, and 4757.5 to 4751.5, if sellers resume control.

Crude Oil

Oil slid dramatically yesterday on heavy volume, and sits around .60 above the lows. Charts are never negatively slanted and selling looks like it will continue to be vigorous into deeper congestion, but a cautionary tone needs to rest in the mind of the trader here – with an eye out for higher lows that might appear if this chart changes direction quickly. Support sits at 43, with targets below at 42.81 and 42.4. Resistance now sits near 44.24, with 44.49 above that.

Trading ranges for crude oil should hold between 42.01 and 44.74 today.

Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 43.84, or at a positive retest off 43.38 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 43.38 are 43.56, 43.74, 43.91, 44.08, 44.22, 44.34, 44.55, 44.74, and 45.21, if buyers really power forward, or we experience extreme squeezing.

Downside trades for crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 43.24 or at the failed retest of 43.74 with negative divergence. Targets from 43.74 are 43.52, 43.38, 43.24, 43.11, 42.9, and 42.62.

If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day.

Visit TheTradingBook.com for more information.

If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.