S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For June 22

Futures Trading Outlook for June 22, 2016 – The S&P 500 futures (ES_F) chart continues to hold higher lows. Price support levels appear to develop in the 2075.75 region. Resistance sits in the 2086.25 to 2094.5 region.

Bullish chart formations are currently in charge at this time, but charts have flattened. I would suspect that for today, just as yesterday, breakouts or breakdowns will certainly come back to retest those areas. When in doubt, consider your trend, and trade with the trend. Lots of support in the form of longer term moving averages sit near 2071. Losing that level and failing to quickly recover it would be quite bearish and alter my futures trading outlook.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION

E-mini S&P Futures

S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook for June 22, 2016 –

Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2082.5, or a positive retest of 2076 with positive momentum. Range upside is limited until the vote. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2076 are 2078.75, 2082.5, 2084.75, 2086, 2088.25, 2092.5, 2094.5, 2096.75, and perhaps 2098.25, and 2099.75 to 2104.5, if power remains with the buyers. We are sitting at another near term resistance area of 2086.5. Selling pressing will likely accelerate below 2076.25, and will likely drift into 2071.

Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2076 or at the failed retest of 2086 with negative divergence. It is important to watch for higher lows to develop with the 2086 entry, as the chart may be attempting recovery. Retracement into lower levels from 2086 gives us the targets 2084.25, 2082.5, 2078.75, 2075.75, 2073.25, 2071.25, 2068.5, 2066.5, 2064.5, 2061.75, 2060.25, 2058.75, 2056.75, 2053.5, 2051.5, 2047.5, and perhaps back to 2046.25, and 2041.5 – but that seems very unlikely at this time.

Nasdaq Futures

Nasdaq Futures Trading Outlook for June 22, 2016 (NQ_F) – Nasdaq futures have a significant resistance region that has shifted down into 4420. Price support sits near 4391. The chart is trapped between moving averages on the composite weekly charts. Momentum is slightly neutral, and drifting negative. The chart should remain choppy and range bound into the EU vote in Britain.

Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4415.5, or a positive retest of 4391.25 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Big resistance sits at 4409. Watch for the lower high to develop in the long opening at 4391.25, as momentum may shift to sellers with the dip lower. Targets from 4391.25 are 4402.25, 4405.25, 4408.75, 4412.25, 4414.25, 4417.25, 4420.5, 4424.5, 4428.75, 4433.25, 4435.75, 4438.5, 4443.25, 4449.25, and 4454.5. Range expansions above 4454.5 could push us into 4476-4478.

Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4391.25 or at the failed retest of 4412.5 with negative divergence. Buyers continue to successfully stage bounces off higher lows to keep the move upward going. Retracement into lower levels from 4412.5 gives us the targets 4409.75, 4405.5, 4401.75, 4397.25, 4394.5, 4389.5, 4384.75, 4378.75, 4384, 4378.75, 4374, 4367.75, and perhaps 4364.5.

Crude Oil

Crude Oil Futures Trading Outlook for June 22, 2016 (CL_F) – The crude oil chart expanded, but rejected resistance near 50.53, with the API report showing a drop in inventories. My thought is that this chart is still artificially expanded, and so my trading size is cautious.

The trading range on crude oil prices suggests support action near 48.7, and resistance behavior near 50.74.

Upside trades on crude oil can be staged on the positive retest of 50.24, or at a bounce off 49.8 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 49.8 are 49.97, 50.11, 50.24, 50.45, 50.53, 50.74, 50.91, and possibly 51.12 to 51.47, if production continues to be disrupted, and traders take advantage of the move.

Downside trades on crude oil can be staged on the failed retest of 49.8, or at the failed retest of 50.22 with negative divergence. These setups give us targets from 50.22 into 49.97, 49.74, 49.64, 49.48, 49.26, 49.12, 49.02, 48.75, 48.46, 48.24, 48.09, 47.97, 47.74, 47.48, 47.24, 46.89, 46.49, 46.24, 46.04, and perhaps 45.94 to 45.46.

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As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.