S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook (high level)
Let’s take a look at the broad market using S&P 500 futures (ES_F) – Friday morning’s subdued price action is setting up for a bigger move (with 2151 as support and 2159 as resistance). Breaches in either direction could expand as technical divergence continues beneath the price action. Moving averages have flattened a bit, but still holding well. Support to watch below 2151 would be 2146 and 2140.5. Resistance above 2159 sits near 2167.75 to 2175. Traders should continue to monitor the crab pattern (see below) on S&P 500 futures and the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX).
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION
E-mini S&P Futures Trading Outlook CHART
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2151.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2146.5 with positive momentum. Keep an eye out for lower highs to set in, as this could signal that sellers are collecting strength. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2146.5 are 2151, 2154.5, 2157.5, 2162, 2167.5, 2171.5, 2175.75, and if we expand, we are likely to stretch above into 2179.75.
Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2151 or at the first failed retest of 2162.5 with negative divergence. As this is a countertrend trade, make sure that you keep your eyes on the lookout for higher lows developing intraday. Retracement into lower levels from 2162.5 gives us the targets 2159, 2155.5, 2151.25, 2147.75, 2145.75, 2143, 2141.75, 2138.75, 2136.5, 2134.5, 2128.25, 2124.5, 2122.75, and 2120.75 to 2118.5, if sellers take over.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
Nasdaq Futures Trading Outlook
Nasdaq futures (NQ_F) has also been range bound this morning with clear resistance above at 4594, and support near 4579.  For now, we wage a battle at these two spaces with no clear winner telegraphed by technical indicators. We’ll watch to see if the new support proposed holds, else, we’ll head back to levels near 4573.75 to 4568.5. Resistance above 4594 sits in a space between 4599.5 and 4613.25.
Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4594.75, or a positive retest of 4580.75 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Watch for the lower high to develop near 4599, if sellers exercise more power intraday. Targets from 4580.75 are 4585, 4589.25, 4592.25, 4599.5, 4602.5, 4606.75, 4608.5, and 4611.75 to 4617.25, if buyers overpower sellers sitting near 4606.
Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – (Still countertrend) -Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4579.5, or at the failed retest of 4594 with negative divergence. Watch those moving averages and trend lines when taking the shorts. Retracement into lower levels from 4594 gives us the targets 4592.25, 4589.75, 4585.5, 4582.75, 4579.75, 4574.5, 4571.5, 4568.25, 4566.5, 4563.75, 4561.5, 4557, 4552.5, 4546.5, 4542.75, 4540, 4538.25, and 4532 to 4528.75, if sellers resume control.
Crude Oil
This chart remains tightly bound in a range that is .75 wide, or so. Resistance remains near 45.74, and support near 44.94. Momentum and trend are both mixed; that usually lends itself to jagged price action – which we continue to see.
Trading ranges on crude oil for today appear to be 44.94 to 45.74, but today I am looking for stretches outside these regions in a price resolution move.
Upside trades on crude oil can be staged on the positive retest of 45.74, or at a bounce off 44.94 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 44.94 are 45.12, 45.49, 45.63, 45.74, 45.98, 46.16, 46.34, 46.48, 46.6, 46.9, 47.04, 47.32, 47.56, 47.74, and 48.14; if traders try once again to recapture 48.
Downside trades on crude oil can be staged on the failed retest of 44.93, or at the failed retest of 45.6 with negative divergence. Targets from 45.6 are 45.46, 45.26, 45.05, 44.94, 44.67, 44.48, 44.29, 44.16, 44.02, 43.84, and 43.65, if selling really takes hold.
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As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
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The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
