S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For January 17

Stock Market Futures Considerations For Jan 17, 2017

We begin a short US trading week today with a dip lower through support and a bounce back into congestion.  Momentum on the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) is drifting lower, so if we fail to breach above 2267, we will slip into the formation of bounces being sold on the day.  Deep support levels will still find buying support. We sit in a general formation of higher lows but lower highs.

Buying pressure will likely strengthen above a positive retest of 2271.50. On the flip side, selling pressure will strengthen with a failed retest of 2259.

Price resistance sits near 2273.75 to 2276.25, with 2279.75 and 2282.5 above that. Price support holds between 2255- 2251, with 2246.50 and 2241.50 below that.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

TODAY’S RANGE OF MOTION – Stock Market Futures January 17

E-MINI S&P 500 FUTURES

Upside trades – Two options for entry

• Positive retest of continuation level -2268 (watch for 2270-2271.5 for possible resistance)
• Positive retest of support level– 2261.5
• Opening targets ranges for non-members -2264.75, 2268.25, 2270.25, 2273.25, 2275.5, 2277, 2280.25, 2282.50, and 2285.25

Downside trades – Two options for entry

• Failed retest of resistance level -2270.50 (watch for higher support building- sellers may also arrive at 2268.25)
• Failed retest of support level– 2265.
• Opening target ranges for non-members –2268.50, 2265.5, 2261.75, 2259.50, 2257.75, 2255.75, 2252.75, 2249.75, 2246.50, 2242.75, and 2239.

Nasdaq Futures

The NQ_F reached another all-time high on Friday as traders looking for returns drove prices upward. Since then, we have drifted lower testing support below a level of interest near 5031.  We hold above the breakout level near 5046 at this writing and if we recapture the 5056.5 area, we could test 5064.  However, momentum seems weak and we could easily drift lower.  I’ll be watching the behavior at the 5043 area.

Buying pressure will likely strengthen with a positive retest of 5056.25.  Selling pressure will strengthen with a failed retest of 5043.50

Price resistance sits near 5056.25 to 5063, with 5071.5 and 5080.75 above that.  Price support holds between 5036 and 5040.25, with 5030 and 5025.75 below that.

Today’s Range of Motion

Upside trades – Two options

• Positive retest of continuation level -5053.25 (needs confirmation on tight time frame and watch for 5057.25 for potential sellers)
• Positive retest of support level– 5048.75
• Opening target ranges for non-members –5052.75, 5056, 5062.25, 5064.5, and 5071

Downside trades- Two options

• Failed retest of resistance level -5048.25
• Failed retest of support level– 5043.5
• Opening target ranges for non-members –5044, 5040, 5036.25, 5031.75, 5025.50, 5021.50, 5017.25, 5013.75, 5010.25, 5007.50, 5004.75, 4997.75, 4994.75, 4991.50, 4985.50, and 4978.75

Crude Oil –WTI

Oil broke up through the bull flag we discussed in the trading room, as buyers hold price up this morning under more bullish news.  US production moves ahead with increases in the face of OPEC cuts that may hold in place.  In the bigger pictures, we do appear to be still quite congested.

Buying pressure will likely strengthen with a positive retest of 53.46.  Selling pressure will strengthen with a failed retest of 52.09

Price resistance sits near 53.26 to 53.46, with 53.78 and 54.28 above that.  Price support holds between 52.13 and 52.04, with 51.76 and 51.48 below that.

Today’s Range of Motion

Upside trades – Two options

• Positive retest of continuation level -53.2-congestion makes the breakout troublesome
• Positive retest of support level– 52.55 (big congestion)
• Opening target ranges for non-members –52.8, 53.16, 53.46, 53.86, 54.12, 54.28, 54.51, 54.76, 55.06, and 55.24

Downside trades- Two options

• Failed retest of resistance level -53.1 (watch for higher lows to stop flow down – or 52.8 to hold as it is a key support point in the chart)
• Failed retest of support level– 52.32

Opening target ranges for non-members –52.85, 52.55, 52.33, 52.09, 51.78, 51.52, 51.24, 51.04, 50.82, 50.47, 50.3, and 50.16.

If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day.

Visit TheTradingBook for more information.

If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.