Stock Market Futures Trading – Broad Market Outlook for August 3, 2016 –  In a week filled with economic releases, Tuesday’s damp momentum allowed S&P 500 futures to drift into lower support. Today, charts still look a bit bearish for stock market futures. And as long as S&P 500 futures fail to hold the retest of 2155, we’ll have a higher probability of heading lower.
Buyers have been setting up this morning at 2145; below that, we see 2141.5 and then 2138.5 to 2135.75 as support levels. Deeper price support sits near 2125 -2123, and price resistance holds steady between 2172 and 2177 today. I suspect we chop into the employment numbers on Friday, but momentum continues to be weak and could hold the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) from any major advancements.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION
S&P 500 Futures Trading Chart (ES_F)
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2153.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2145.5 with positive momentum. Remember that the feel of the chart is congestion, so breakouts will be difficult to maintain. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2145.5 are 2149.5, 2151.5, 2153, 2157.25, 2161.5, 2162.5, 2166.25, 2169.25, 2171, 2174.75, 2177.25, 2179.25, 2180.25, and if we expand, we may stretch above into 2184.5 and 2189.75.
Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2145 or at the first failed retest of 2152.5 with negative divergence. Keep your eyes on the lookout for higher lows developing intraday. Retracement into lower levels from 2152.5 gives us the targets 2149.75, 2145.75, 2143.75, 2141.5, 2139.5, 2136.75, and 2128.5, if sellers take over.
Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F)
Nasdaq futures have been unable to hold levels and has produced lower highs over the last two days. New support rests near 4681, with a lower break into 4678, if sellers gain traction. At this point, we hold higher lows near 4698. Resistance levels are now between 4744.75-4760. Breaches continue to fail retests. Value buyers at support levels have done well over the last few weeks, but dips now have clear resistance levels preventing motion higher.
Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4715, or a positive retest of 4698.75 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Watch for the lower high to develop with this range break, if sellers exercise more power intraday. Targets from 4698.75 are 4703.5, 4706.25, 4708.25, 4712.5, 4714.5, 4717.75, 4724.25, 4732.25, 4737.5, 4741, 4744.5, 4747.75, 4749.75, 4751.75, 4756.25, 4759.25, and 4767.75, if buyers continue the rally north.
Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4702.75, or at the failed retest of 4712.5 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 4712.5 gives us the targets 4708.5, 4705.75, 4703, 4698.75, 4693.75, 4691.25, 4687.75, 4682.25, 4678.5, 4672.25, 4664.75, and 4660.5 to 4658.5, if sellers resume control.
Crude Oil
EIA report at 10:30 ET –API showed build, but charts have held their lows, while having significant trouble breaching and holding 40. If the EIA number is shy of the API number, we’ll bounce, but if it is a bigger build, we’ll very likely head lower into yesterday’s lows. Yesterday’s low of 39.26 and 38.7ish loom as next targets.
Trading ranges for crude oil should hover between 38.66 and 41.54.
Upside trades on crude oil can be staged on the positive retest of 40.12, or at a bounce off 39.52 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 39.52 are 39.86, 39.99, 40.11, 40.24, 40.57, 40.7, 40.84, 41.04, 41.25, 41.46, 41.67, 41.86, 42.16, 42.24, 42.45, 42.78, 42.9, and perhaps, 43.1, if buyers really take control – but these higher levels are very unlikely at this time.
Downside trades on crude oil can be staged on the failed retest of 39.38, or at the failed retest of 40.74 with negative divergence. Targets from 40.74 are 40.57, 40.34, 40.19, 39.87, 39.56, 39.38, 39.26, 39.02, 38.74, 38.42 and 38.22.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
