S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For August 31st

S&P 500 futures outlook for August 31, 2016

Buyers came to the rescue shortly after the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) hit its lows yesterday. But we begin this morning much like yesterday with S&P 500 futures trading with weakness. Trading volume should be lighter as we move into a long weekend ahead, but even so, the range bound price action should remain. This does not mean that we won’t break in either direction. It does mean, however, that the moves up or down will not likely hold. Price support levels for S&P 500 futures hold near 2167.5, with 2164.75 below that. Price resistance sits near 2182, with 2186.5 above that.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION

S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For August 31

Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2177.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2170.5 with upward momentum. If we spike downward into 2162.5, it should prove out as a bounce zone, as well. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2170.5 are 2172.25, 2175.25, 2177.5, 2181.5, 2183.5, 2186.5, 2189, if we expand, we may stretch above into 2192 and 2194.75. Tight spaces between levels show that the chart is quite congested through the ranges.

Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2170.5, or at the failed retest of 2177 with negative divergence. We could also see a bounce into 2181.5. An aggressive short could be staged there if divergence is negative. Retracement into lower levels from 2177 gives us the targets 2175.5, 2170.25, 2167.5, 2164.5, 2160.25, 2158, and 2154.75, if sellers take over.

Nasdaq Futures

The NQ_F is holding lower congestion this morning.  Range bound trading continues to appear as very likely here, as well. Support levels are congested between 4770.5 and 4774.5, with a potential stretch back into 4768. Resistance sits between 4782.25-4788.5, with expansions that could reach 4802-4806

Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4779.5, or a positive retest of 4774.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4774.5 are 4779.5, 4782.25, 4785.5, 4788.5, 4792.25, 4794.5, 4801.5, 4806.25, 4815.5, 4821.5, 4824.25, and 4829, if buyers hold the rally north.

Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4770.25, or at the failed retest of 4778 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 4778 gives us the targets 4774.5, 4770.5, 4768.5, 4764.5, and 4760.5 to 4753.5, if sellers resume control.

Crude Oil

The API reported a build in their release greater than traders expected which sent oil sliding to lows near targets that are close to holding key support on weekly charts. Currently support holds at 45.75, but a target down at 45.38 is certainly plausible, and below there, 45.04. Resistance now sits near 46.46, with 47.15 above that, if price really expands on surprises from the EIA report due out at 10:30am.

The trading range for crude oil should hold between 45.38 and 47.13 today.

Upside trades on crude oil can be staged on the positive retest of 46.47, or at a positive retest off 46.24 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 46.24 are 46.42, 46.63, 46.94, 47.01, 47.21, 47.37, 47.53, 47.74, 47.96, and the outside chance that we see 48.09 to 48.33, if buyers power forward.

Downside trades on crude oil can be staged on the failed retest of 45.9, or at the failed retest of 46.24 with negative divergence. Targets from 46.24 are 46.07, 45.94, 45.78, 45.54, and 45.34, if sellers continue to push buyers out of the way.

If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.