S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For August 4th

S&P 500 Futures Trading August 4 – Broad Market Overview

Buyers are on the move this morning, pushing S&P 500 futures prices higher into resistance. Current congestion resides between 2160-2165. Today, charts still look a bit bearish, but recovering. As long as we can keep 2153, we’ll bolster the courage of buyers to advance into resistance. Buyers have been setting up this morning at 2145; below that, we see 2141.5 and then 2138.5 to 2135.75 as support levels. Deeper price support sits near 2125 -2123, and price resistance holds steady between 2172 and 2177 today. I suspect that we’ll see the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) chop into the employment numbers on Friday, but momentum continues to be weak.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION

S&P 500 Futures Trading Chart (ES_F)

Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2166.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2156.5 with positive momentum. Remember that the feel of the chart is congestion, so breakouts will be difficult to maintain, and sellers have an idea that a breakdown is near (I’m not so sure of this). I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2156.5 are 2159.25, 2161.5, 2164.25, 2166.25, 2169.25, 2171, 2174.75, 2177.25, 2179.25, 2180.25, and if we expand, we may stretch above into 2184.5 and 2189.75.

Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2154 or at the first failed retest of 2164 with negative divergence. Keep your eyes on the lookout for higher lows developing intraday. Retracement into lower levels from 2164 gives us the targets 2162.25, 2159.5, 2156.75, 2153.5, 2151.5, 2149.5, 2145.75, 2143.25, 2141.5, 2139.5, 2136.75, and 2128.5, if sellers take over.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ_F)

The NQ_F has followed suit and lifted off support into a key level of 4732.25 and holding right at the edge of this resistance level. New support rests near 4713, with a lower break into 4682, if sellers gain traction. At this point, we hold higher lows near 4717. Resistance levels are still between 4744.75-4760. Breakouts continue to fail retests, but buyers continue to save the day.

Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4732.5, or a positive retest of 4717.75 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Watch for the lower high to develop with this range break, if sellers exercise more power intraday. Targets from 4717.75 are 4724.25, 4732.25, 4737.5, 4741, 4744.5, 4747.75, 4749.75, 4751.75, 4756.25, 4759.25, and 4767.75, if buyers continue the rally north.

Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4714.75, or at the failed retest of 4730.5 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 4730.5 gives us the targets 4726.5, 4724.25, 4721.5, 4717.5, 4714.75, 4710.75, 4708.5, 4705.75, 4703, 4698.75, 4693.75, 4691.25, 4687.75, 4682.25, 4678.5, 4672.25, 4664.75, and 4660.5 to 4658.5, if sellers resume control.

Crude Oil

Oil bounced hard off the EIA number yesterday into resistance near 41.41, a bit shy of the 41.54 top I suspected. The chart is still bearish but I suspect traders will try to lift charts off these levels into resistance near 42.26. Sellers are still in charge, but buyers should come into create higher lows for the moves today.

Trading ranges for crude oil should hover between 39.66 and 42.26.

Upside trades in crude oil can be staged on the positive retest of 40.84, or at a bounce off 40.25 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 40.25 are 40.52, 40.64, 40.77, 40.92, 41.12, 41.21, 41.4, 41.67, 41.86, 42.16, 42.24, 42.45, 42.78, 42.9, and perhaps, 43.1, if buyers really take control – but these higher levels are very unlikely at this time.

Downside trades in crude oil can be staged on the failed retest of 40.4, or at the failed retest of 41.59 with negative divergence. Targets from 41.59 are 41.35, 41.16, 40.94, 40.77, 40.57, 40.34, 40.19, 39.87, 39.56, 39.38, 39.26, 39.02, 38.74, 38.42 and 38.22.

If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.