S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For August 29

S&P 500 Futures Trading Overview and Stock Market Futures Outlook for August 29, 2016

This week’s big economic release will be the employment outlook on Friday. The commentary from FOMC Chair, Janet Yellen, did little to move the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) out of its trading range.  S&P 500 futures did swing quite a bit, dipping below support and recovering quickly. Remember, it is the failed retest that determines a continuation in this environment, not simply a loss of a level (or a breach of one, for that matter). Range based trading should continue. Dips below 2164 may be bought, but price could test 2160 to 2157.75 before holding traction. Price resistance sits near 2177.75, but could stretch into 2185.5 and 2188.50, if buyers take hold. For now, it seems sellers are holding the line of resistance.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION

S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For August 29

Upside trades in S&P 500 futures trading – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2172.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2165.5 with upward momentum. If we spike downward into 2162.5, it should prove out as a bounce zone, as well. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2165.5 are 2167.75, 2172.25, 2175.25, 2177.75, 2181.5, 2183.5, 2186.5, 2189.25, if we expand, we may stretch above into 2191.75 and 2194.75. Tight spaces between levels show that the chart is quite congested through the ranges.

Downside trades in S&P 500 futures trading – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2164, or at the failed retest of 2177.5 with negative divergence. We could also see a bounce into 2186, which seems like a space sellers would be sitting. An aggressive short could be staged there if divergence is negative. Retracement into lower levels from 2177.5 gives us the targets 2175.5, 2170, 2167.5, 2165.5, 2163.25, 2160.5, 2158.5, and 2154.75, if sellers take over.

If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day.

Nasdaq Futures

The NQ_F also traversed a wide range before falling back into congestion. Range bound trading seems very likely, with some strength showing slightly negative. Price support levels are a bit muddy between 4774.5 and 4777.5, with a potential stretch back into 4767. Price resistance sits between 4792.5-4799.75, with a major congestion level below these regions sitting near 4784-4788.

Upside trades in Nasdaq futures trading – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4786.5, or a positive retest of 4777.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4777.5 are 4781.25, 4783.5, 4786.5, 4789, 4791.5, 4794.5, 4801.5, 4806.25, 4815.5, 4821.5, 4824.25, and 4829, if buyers hold the rally north.

Downside trades in Nasdaq futures trading – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4776, or at the failed retest of 4786 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 4786 gives us the targets 4784, 4781.75, 4777.75, 4772.5, 4768.5, 4764.5, and 4760.5 to 4753.5, if sellers resume control.

Crude Oil

Oil is drifting between support and resistance, with buyers trying to salvage the trend upward. Currently support holds at 46.36, and below there, 45.69. Resistance sits near 48.08, with 48.4 above that.

Trading ranges for crude oil futures should hold between 46.38 and 48.4 today.

Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 47.12, or at a positive retest off 46.8 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 46.8 are 47.12, 47.26, 47.45, 47.64, 47.74, 47.96, and the chance that we see 48.05 to 48.33, if buyers power forward.

Downside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 46.81, or at the failed retest of 47.46 with negative divergence. Targets from 47.46 are 47.37, 47.26, 47.12, 46.93, 46.81, 46.66, 46.51, 46.28, 46.07, 45.98, and 45.81 to 45.57, if sellers push buyers out of the way.

If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day.

Visit TheTradingBook.com for more information.

If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.