A high level overview of stock market futures for August 26, 2016 shows a market that is range bound and waiting for a catalyst. Perhaps today will give traders that catalyst. The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) has been wrapped in a tight range for some time… ready for a move. Let’s look at S&P 500 futures from a daily perspective, then dive into the trading details.
With Janet Yellen’s comments on the horizon, we quietly lifting off of 2173, filling in the short term volume profile. Trading was quite range bound as expected into the speech. We should see a bit of gyration as the day moves on, with my overall suspicion that we are setting up to bounce into resistance. Primary support holds at 2167.5 intraday, with 2165.5, 2163.25, and 2160.5 below that. Resistance sits near 2177.75, but could stretch into 2185.5 and 2191.50, if traders trade the channel again.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION
S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For August 26
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2177.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2168.5 with upward momentum. If we spike downward into 2165.5, it should prove out as a bounce zone, as well. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2168.5 are 2172.25, 2176.25, 2179.25, 2181.5, 2184.5, 2187.5, 2189.25, if we expand, we may stretch above into 2191.75 and 2194.75.
Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2167.5, or at the failed retest of 2184.5 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 2184.5 gives us the targets 2181.75, 2177.75, 2174.5, 2172.5, 2167.5, 2165.5, 2163.25, 2160.5, 2158.5, and 2154.75, if sellers take over.
If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day.
Nasdaq Futures
The NQ_F has held a ten-point range since midday yesterday. Support levels are a bit muddy between 4774.5 and 4770.5, with a potential stretch back into 4768. Resistance sits between 4796.5-4806.75, as it was yesterday, but a break to higher levels is certainly possible in our range based environment.
Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4786.5, or a positive retest of 4776 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4776 are 4781.5, 4783.5, 4786.5, 4790.5, 4792.25, 4796.5, 4806.25, 4815.5, 4821.5, 4824.25, and 4829, if buyers continue the rally north.
Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4776, or at the failed retest of 4786.5 with negative divergence (particularly important here). Retracement into lower levels from 4786.5 gives us the targets 4781.75, 4777.75, 4772.5, 4768.5, 4764.5, and 4760.5 to 4753.5, if sellers resume control.
Crude Oil
Traders are caught in a fifty-cent range in the WTI contract for oil this morning. Currently support holds at 46.3, and below there, 45.7. Resistance sits near 47.45, with 47.96 above that.
Trading ranges for crude oil should hold between 45.5 and 48.12 today.
Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 47.5 or at a positive retest off 47.04 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 47.04 are 47.21, 47.45, 47.61, 47.74, 47.94, and the outside chance that we see 48.05 to 48.12, if buyers power forward.
Downside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 46.97, or at the failed retest of 47.6 with negative divergence. Targets from 47.6 are 47.46, 47.21, 47.07, 46.97, 46.81, 46.59, 46.26, 46.06, 45.98, and 45.81 to 45.57, if sellers continue control.
If you’re interested in watching these trades go live, join us in the live trading room from 9am to 11:30am each trading day.
Visit TheTradingBook.com for more information.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
