S&P 500 futures outlook for Apr 18, 2016 – After traders were disappointed by the Doha ‘no decision’ outcome, the charts backed right down into Wednesday’s predicted test of support near 2061.5.
Although the chart bounced off that support region, it did lose it for a time as sellers finally thought the moment had arrived.
True to form, however, the S&P 500 futures buyers came to the rescues once more and we now are battling at resistance near 2072 -2074. The tests of these levels will be important to gauge further extensions in price, either long or short. The support levels to watch today will be near the 2061-2064 region, and suspect traders will battle there before recovery or failure. The chart is bounded by sellers above near 2077-2082, but if support tests hold, we could easily rise again into the level seen on Wednesday.
Momentum on the four hour chart is mixed across stock market futures at this writing, so trading should be range bound (into support bounces and into resistance rejections). Buyers still continue to save the day at the deep traces south, but sellers continue to prevent price advances to the north.
Shorter time frame momentum indicators are negative but lifting into resistance that now looks like 2074 for now. Buyers will try to defend 2064.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF THURSDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Crude Oil futures outlook for Apr 18, 2016 – The acceleration northward wound down a bit on Friday as cooler heads took profit into the Doha meetings. The OPEC and non OPEC countries failed to come to an agreement due to the stipulation from Saudi Arabia that Iran also limit production levels. This is not desired by Iran as they are just coming out from under the trade embargo. Hence, charts drifted back into support regions near 39.11 before bouncing. The pesky 200 daily moving average on the composite chart, now near 40.77, is giving bullish traders a bit of difficulty as oil fails to hold above the level.
Today, the trading ranges for crude oil are 37.7 -41.82. Key support is near 39.9 – key resistance near 41.72.
Moving averages in oil are now bearish on tighter intraday time frames, and mixed on longer intraday time frames – making for a messy trading environment as buyers and sellers battle for dominance. I suspect that we have seen the lows for the year, but I see range bound behavior in the intermediate term for the contracts we trade here in WTI Crude.
Intraday long trading setup for crude oil futures suggest a long off a 40.56 or 39.84 positive retest on the pullback (check momentum here), into targets of 40.35, 40.54, 40.84, 41.08, 41.33 and if buyers hold on, we’ll see 41.57 to 41.83.
Intraday short trading setups suggest a short below a 40.11 failed retest, or the failed retest of 41.3 (with negative momentum prevailing) sends us back through targets at 41.05, 40.89, 40.56, 40.32, 40.14, 39.84, and 39.2, if sellers hang on.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F) Â
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
S&P 500 futures outlook for Apr 18, 2016 – The levels between 2074- 2077.5 serve as front line resistance – and so far, the sellers have rejected the lower edges of this region. Front line support sits near 2057.5- 2061.5 region. I anticipate a range bound day as traders try to struggle through direction. Many are placing the line in the sand for what they believe is an opening for short or long continuation but I can only see indecision for now, with a slant to the buyers as they continually save the day at support levels.
Upside motion has the best setup on the positive retest of 2064.25 or a breach and retest of 2072.75 with positive momentum – eyes on resistance at 2077 with this 2072.75 entry though. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2064.5 are 2066.5, 2069.5, 2071.25, 2072.5, 2074.5, 2077.5, 2079.5, 2081.25, 2084.5, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2086.5, 2088.25, and 2092.5. Long action is still trending over the bigger picture for now, but momentum is steadily drifting lower on longer time frames.
Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 2063.5 or at the failed retest of 2071.5 with negative divergence (careful here- watch for the higher low to develop to tell you that an early exit might be necessary). Retracement into lower levels from 2063.5 gives us the targets 2061.25, 2058.50, 2056.75, 2054.75, 2051.75, 2049.5, and perhaps 2046.5 to 2043.5. Buyers should still come to the rescue at the deep support, particularly at the first pass.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Thanks for reading.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
