Stock Market Futures Outlook for June 6, 2016 – S&P 500 futures (ES_F) –Breakout formations continue to hold, as momentum continues to drift down. That implies a high probability occurrence of a failed breakout pattern. No time to buy and hold here in my mind, unless the trader is willing to watch the chart rotate against them for a time. Overall, patterns still look bullish but buying breakouts have been extremely painful for many traders in the current cycle for many charts, particularly the broad indices. The levels, 2106.5 to 2109.75, will act as resistance today, and big pops to the upside that can be traded intraday, are very likely to move back into congested territory. If, however, the buyers can come in to defend breakout action, we could see a return to upside targets, a run higher would be likely. Support today looks like 2093.5 – 2091.5, with more selling activity below the fight to defend 2097.5.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF TUESDAY’S MOTION
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F)
S&P 500 Futures Outlook for June 6, 2016 –
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2097.5, or a positive retest of 2102 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2097.5 are 2101, 2103.5, 2105.75, 2106.5, and if perhaps 2110.25, and 2112.25 to 2116.5, if the shift of balance remains with the buyers.
Downside trades S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2101 or at the failed retest of 2109.75 with negative divergence. It is important to watch for higher lows to develop with the 2109.75 entry, if the strength of motion holds with the buyers. Retracement into lower levels from 2109.75 gives us the targets 2108, 2106, 2104.75, 2101.5, 2099.5, 2096.25, 2094.25, 2092.5, 2090.5, 2088.5, 2085.5, 2082.25, 2078.5, and perhaps back to 2077.5 to 2075.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
Nasdaq Futures
Outlook for Nasdaq futures for June 6, 2016 – Nasdaq futures (NQ_F) remain range bound. Significant overhead supply continues to sit between 4538 and 4564. Weak momentum continues but remains in positive territory, nevertheless. Bearish action will be amplified below the failed retest of 4511, and the failure to recapture 4525 will leave us vulnerable to sellers taking control.
Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4525.25, or a positive retest of 4506.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Watch for the lower high to develop, and sellers to force the chart down, if sellers take hold near the 4514 test from below. Targets from 4506.5 are 4508.5, 4514.5, 4518.75, 4524.5, 4528.25, 4535.5, 4544.75, 4550.75, and 4555.25. Range expansions above here should fail under the negative divergence, but could stretch into 4564-4578.
Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4505.5 or at the failed retest of 4531 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 4523.75 gives us the targets 4520.75, 4516.5, 4512.5, 4508.5, 4502.5, 4497.5, 4479.5, 4472.25, 4464.75, 4451.25, and perhaps 4434.5 – but those deep levels only come about if we have a real shift of momentum.
Oil
Outlook for crude oil futures for June 6, 2016 –The chart for crude oil futures sits in a wedge that has been tightening for three days, with much narrower ranges than oil traders like. With all the coiling here, we’re sure to see some kind of big wick action soon. Bullish action is slightly more probable, so pullbacks ought to be bought, but overhead supply sits near 49.45 to 49.79 and, of course, that 50 level.
The trading range on crude oil suggests support action near 47.7, and resistance behavior near 49.98.
Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the breach of 49.46, or at a pullback into 48.74. If the chart dips sharply into 48.6 again, buyers will lurk there also – this is due to the formation of price action in play. Watch carefully for resistance ahead near the entry at 49.46. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 48.74 are 48.89, 49.04, 49.14, 49.32, 49.57, 49.74, 49.97, and 50.04. Range expansion could occur here if buyers exercise real pressure, or if stops start getting triggered. Those resistance levels above are 50.6, 50.92, and 51.41, but price is very likely to fail on any range expansion, especially if it is due to squeezing action on the stops.
Downside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 48.94, or at the failed retest of 49.41 with negative divergence. Again, we can also look for exhaustion moves north, but with eyes on higher support coming in to push the chart upward. These setups give us targets from 49.4 into 49.11, 49.98, 48.86, 48.7, 48.49, 48.27, 47.97, and perhaps 47.68 to 47.24.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
