April 26 stock market futures outlook – A weekly close above 2082 on S&P 500 futures (ES_F) was a fair signal that buyers are still intent on holding paths north, but undercurrents in this market remain mixed.
If prevailing strength were wholly positive, we would see more individual charts catch bids into resistance and breach with more ease, but this is not the case. Watching this suggests to me that we remain trapped in a range that could press into old levels of resistance, but until we see a breach and retest of the congestion levels near 2098 with momentum, we are likely to stay in this choppy mode.
Today, the battleground for S&P 500 futures appears to be setting up near 2084-2087. Above there, things get a bit more bullish intraday into resistance at 2092-2096.
Today, the weight of the week will sit on the shoulders of buyers near the key level of 2082 to hold. So far, we’ve dipped into 2074 before bouncing. Dips into familiar regions near 2074-2071.5 should find buying support, but it is important to watch for lower highs to set up on the bounces here to signal that short action intraday is building.  Sellers seem keen on keeping them below 2092, so watch that failed test if you want to enter on resistance. If that fight resolves upward, buying action will shift us into the regions near resistance at 2092-2096. If not, we see the drift back into 2082 on the horizon and perhaps lower into the lows of the morning.
As I mentioned Friday, my thoughts are that swing positions here for more than a few days are a bit foolhardy in either direction because the charts do not show clear directional strength. Higher resistance on S&P 500 futures sits near 2101.75 to 2105.75. Deeper support holds at 2071.5- 2074.
Momentum on the four hour chart is negative as buyers defend support against underlying momentum. This is normally a weak formation for buyers and upside strength. Initial resistance is building at that previously mentioned 2092 region for now.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF THURSDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Crude oil outlook for April 26 – For the second trading day in a row, the level 43.3 -43.4 is a decision zone for traders. I mentioned a thin volume profile on Friday and we are building in those ranges currently. Range expansion is likely if crude oil prices can breach and hold 43.75 today as momentum still sits in positive ranges though without much strength.
Today, the trading ranges on crude oil are 42.25 -44.49. We’ve rejected that upper end a few times, but until we lose support regions below, our slant should remain bullish. As always, my eyes look for the lower highs in these spaces near obvious resistance from which we have recently receded.
Moving averages in oil are mixed to slightly down on tighter intraday time frames, and bullish to mixed on longer time frames – giving us the likely pattern of support bounces into resistance and reversals back into support for the day ahead. Resistance ahead will be on the watch. As mentioned in earlier posts, upper levels, 44.89 and perhaps 45.3, have yet to be tested, but the sharp rise up leaves few catch points if the chart continues to lose buying momentum. Regions near 41-40.78 look particularly favorable as a retest below in the current formation. That means the short actions should open at the tests of resistance.
Intraday long trading setups on crude oil suggest a long off a 42.9 retest, or the 43.45 positive retest on the pullback (check momentum here at low level bounce, and watch the region at 43.75 for sellers) into targets of 43.2, 43.42, 43.74, 43.97, 44.12, and if buyers hold on, we’ll see 44.45 to 45.13.
Intraday short trading setups suggest a short below a 43.24 failed retest, or the failed retest of 43.74 (with negative momentum prevailing) sends us back through targets at 43.45, 43.14, 42.94, 42.68, 42.54, 42.29, 42.07, and 41.8, if sellers hang on.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F) Â
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
April 25 S&P 500 futures outlook – The levels between 2098.75- 2104.25 serve as important resistance. Front line support sits near 2071.5- 2074 region. Buyers are holding support for now in a moving average squeeze, but with damp momentum.
Upside motion for S&P 500 futures has the best setup on the positive retest of 2089.75 or a bounce off 2074.25 with positive momentum – eyes on congestion at 2082.75 -2084.75 with this 2074.25 entry. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2074.25 are 2078.25, 2082.5, 2085.75, 2088.25, 2091.5, 2094.5, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2098.5 to 2104.75- but that upper level seems extremely unlikely to me at this time. Long action is still trending over the bigger picture for now, but we sit for yet another day at important areas to defend as a buyer. We open the day under negative momentum that is flattening.
Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 2078.25 or at the failed retest of 2091.5 with negative divergence (careful here- watch for the higher low to develop to tell you that an early exit might be necessary- likely near 2084.5). Retracement into lower levels from 2091 gives us the targets 2088.75, 2085.50, 2082.5, 2078, 2075.25, 2072, and perhaps 2071.5 to 2068.5. Buyers should still come to the rescue at the deep support, particularly at the first pass.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Thanks for reading.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
