Stock Market Futures Outlook for May 13, 2016 – Early this morning, traders watched S&P 500 futures make a familiar test of the 2046 level. That support level brought buyers back into the mix and pushed the market to today’s level of contention at 2054.5.
It seems like S&P 500 futures will try to stretch into 2057.75 to 2059. There we should see sellers come out – but we have to get over 2054 first. Charts feel a bit more bearish today, so I suspect bounces are likely to be sold.
If we are able to keep the 2059.5 retest, buyers will be more likely to add steam to the retrace upward back into resistance near 2063.25, and 2067.25, before sellers try to force buyers back down again. Lots of overhead supply exists.
Momentum on the four hour chart is now bearish but flattening- some choppy action continues to be likely, with sellers likely to show up at key resistance levels. Congestion of price makes directional breaks somewhat difficult.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF TUESDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Outlook for crude oil for May 13, 2016 – Oil is struggling to hold onto gains. Buyers continue to rescue the chart at key support levels, only to have sellers move the price action into lower highs and lower lows. I mentioned yesterday that the thin volume on the move up would make for regions that big drops could occur, and this is being played out. This makes for a challenging environment as we clearly see there is quite a difference of opinion with what should be happening to the price of crude oil.
The trading range for oil suggests support action near 45.74 (for now), and resistance behavior near 47.04.
Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 46.49, or a bounce off 45.86, but watch for resistance after the breach of 46.7, near 46.94, and 47.24. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 45.86 are 46.15, 46.4, 46.64, 46.74, 46.92, 47.03, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 47.48, 47.86 to 48.15.
Downside trades seem feasible below the failed retest of 45.8, or at the failed retest of 46.4 with negative divergence – careful to watch for higher lows at the short on the resistance level. We remain in a very important congestion zone on larger time frames. Retracement into lower levels from 46.4 give us the targets 46.14, 45.86, 45.64, 45.46, 45.27, 45.04, and perhaps 44.78, 44.57, 44.34, 44.18, and 44.04.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F) Â
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
S&P 500 futures outlook for May 13, 2016 – Trading appears to be quite range bound, but testing the edges of key support.
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures will be into resistance, but the best setup sits on the positive retest of 2054.5, or a bounce off 2048.25 (better that it is a retest) with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2048.25 are 2051.75, 2054.25, 2057.25, 2060.5, 2063.25, 2066.5, 2069.25, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2072.5, 2074.25, and 2078.25.
Downside trades open below the failed retest of 2054.5 or at the failed retest of 2059.25 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 2059.25 gives us the targets 2054.75, 2051.5, 2048.5, 2046.25, 2042.75, 2038.5, 2035.5, 2033.25, 2031.25, and perhaps 2027.5.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
