The March 9 outlook for stock market futures includes the same levels as yesterday. Thus far, S&P 500 futures have bounced nicely off support at 1978. The current battleground is at 1991.5 as intraday traders try to force the chart in either direction.
There is congestion all the way to 1994.5, and if breached and held, we’ll retest 1999 to 2000.25. Price action is extended, which points to either a lull in movement, or a drift into deeper support. Trading ranges remain the same as yesterday.
Range expansion into higher levels are not likely to hold once more, and will continue to give us countertrend shorts into support – and buyers will force price to hold at support.
Momentum on the four hour chart is negative. Daily charts continue to show momentum as trending positive, though somewhat flattening, and in positive territory.
Shorter time frame momentum indicators are sloping up, but jammed against resistance. 1981.25 – 1984.5 is the support region to watch for sellers to test and for buyers to hold if this chart fails to move forward- so far, it is holding.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF TUESDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
Crude Oil futures continue to rise as we stretch into major resistance after a pullback into support levels yesterday.
Today, the trading ranges are between 36.12 and 38.48. Expansions outside those zones will retest the range levels, and if held, will advance in the direction of the break. Use the 1hr chart to assist there.
Moving averages for crude oil show us rising positive momentum on longer time frames, but strong resistance looms ahead near 38.4- 39.2. Support still holds tightly at 36.05
Intraday long trading setups on crude oil futures suggest a long off 37.12 positive retest, or 37.35 positive retest into 37.75, 37.96, 38.2 and if buyers hold on, we’ll see 38.42, and 38.7 to potentially 38.94.
Intraday short trading setups suggest a short below a 36.2 failed retest with negative divergence, or the failed retest of 37.3 sends us back through targets at 37.12, 36.8, 36.59, 36.2, 36.08, and back into familiar regions seen near 35.63, if sellers hang on.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F) Â
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
The March 9 outlook for S&P 500 futures shows that the charts have continued receding from Friday’s highs and finally tested the support targets of 1981-1984. If the chart fails to recapture and hold 1994.75, S&P 500 futures may test congestion in the region of 1981-1984. If that level is lost, we have lower levels near 1974-1978 to look toward as targets. The S&P 500 futures chart will be vulnerable to selling below 1984, if it does not quickly recover after a test of that level.
Upside motion has the best setup on the breach of 1994.75 or a bounce off 1987.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 1994.75 are 1997.25, 1999, 2000.25, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand back into 2002.25 and beyond. The next big resistance test for S&P 500 futures sits at the region between 2011-2015, then 2021-2025. Watch the higher lows to keep you on the right side of the long trade. Charts are firming up, but expect pullbacks into higher support.
Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 1990.5 or at the failed retest of 1999 with negative divergence – but really watch for the higher lows there- the higher lows will signal that your short is ill positioned. Retracement into lower levels from 1990 gives us the targets 1987, 1984.5, 1981.5, 1974.75, 1971.25, 1969.25 and perhaps 1964.5 if selling really takes hold.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Thanks for reading.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
