The following research was contributed to by Christine Short, VP of Research at Wall Street Horizon.
What a first half it was. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both returned more than 15% with gains extending into early July.1
If there’s trepidation about what the second half may have in store, it’s hard to see those jitters very much in price action lately.
Sure, the rally continues to be driven by a handful of US mega-caps, but volatility remains subdued and economic data is hanging in there for the most part. Job growth is holding up while inflation has slowly eased, and now eyes turn to the second-quarter earnings season.
As the Q2 earnings season begins, Wall Street Horizon hosts a Data Minds event on July 18 where industry experts will discuss dissecting data as global markets shift in the second half of 2024. Topics for discussion include: global H2 trading and risk outlook, how sector correlations can affect volatility, investor AI use cases, the latest trends in ETFs and more.
A High Earnings Bar
According to FactSet, S&P 500 companies are forecast to report earnings growth of 8.8%. If it verifies, it would be the best growth rate since Q1 of 2022, right before the US earnings recession began. Peeking ahead, the third quarter is expected to sport an 8.1% increase in SPX earnings per share followed by a much higher 17.3% year-on-year profit jump in Q4.2 Investors and executives alike may stare up at that lofty profit bar and wonder if it can be hurdled. Perhaps they can gain confidence by watching a few track and field events in Paris later this month.
Central Banks Closely Watching Macro Trends
Consider that there may be cracks emerging with the consumer, evidenced by rising delinquency rates across some credit metrics.3 Moreover, the robust pace of US GDP growth over the latter half of 2023 seems like a distant memory, at least when juxtaposed with the current Atlanta Fed GDPNow real Q2 economic expansion estimate.4 Finally, economic surprises have been a pooper since April.5
But Chair Powell and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee stand pat, ready to slash interest rates if there are definitive signs of deterioration in the US economy. Overseas, the European Central Bank has already begun its rate-cutting cycle.
Low Current Volatility Ahead of Key Elections
And we can’t leave out the elephant (and donkey) in the room: election 2024, everyone’s favorite topic. Uncertainty is high regarding the future makeup of Congress and who will reside in The White House come next January. Could that bring about volatility in the months ahead? Hard to say, but history suggests it’s quite possible. The VIX Index tends to rise ahead of when US voters head to the polls, and there have already been rocky reactions to recent elections (see: Mexico, India, and France). All told, more than half of the global population is set to cast ballots this year.6
Executive Decisions
These are weighty issues with real implications for companies big and small. Along with earnings season’s usual insights, C-suite leaders might also shed light on macro conditions and industry-specific issues at a full slate of third-quarter conferences. July is often a light month of corporate gatherings, but key events take off in August and then come left and right in September. Here are the most potentially impactful conferences and forums scheduled this quarter:
Information Technology & Communication Services
August 8: Morgan Stanley Media and Communications Corporate Access Day
August 12: Oppenheimer 27th Annual Technology, Internet & Communications Conference (Virtual)
August 26: Stifel Tech Executive Summit
August 27: Jefferies Semiconductor, IT Hardware & Communication Technology Summit
August 28: Deutsche Bank Technology Conference
September 3: Barclays Media and Telecom Forum
September 4: Citi Global Technology Conference
September 9: Goldman Sachs Communacopia Technology Conference
September 11: Jefferies Tech Trek Conference
Health Care
July 28: Alzheimer’s Association International Conference (AAIC)
July 29: 4th Annual mRNA-Based Therapeutics Summit
August 5: Oppenheimer Biotech in the Berkshires
August 12: Stifel Biotech Summer Summit
August 14: UBS Genomic Medicine Summit
September 4: Morgan Stanley 22nd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
September 4: Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
September 11: Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference
September 17: Cantor Fitzgerald Global Healthcare Conference
Consumer Discretionary & Consumer Staples
September 3: Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference
September 4: Goldman Sachs 31st Annual Global Retail Conference
September 18: 28th Annual Scotiabank Back to School Conference
September 18: Wells Fargo 7th Annual Consumer Conference
September 24: Bank Of America European Autos & Future Car Conference
Financials & Real Estate
August 21: Wells Fargo 9th Annual FinTech & Services Forum
September 9: Goldman Sachs CEEMEA Financial Symposium
September 9: Barclays 22nd Global Financial Services Conference
September 11: Bank of America Global Real Estate Conference
September 24: Bank of America Securities 29th Annual Financials CEO Conference
Industrials
September 4: Morgan Stanley Industrial CEOs Unplugged
September 4: Jefferies Industrials Conference
September 4: Stifel London Industrials Summit
September 18: D.A. Davidson 23rd Annual Diversified Industrials & Services Conference
Energy & Utilities
August 13: Citi One-on-One Midstream and Energy Infrastructure Conference
September 3: Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference
September 9: ROTH 11th Annual Solar & Storage Symposium
September 10: NYSE Energy & Utilities Investor Access Day (Virtual)
Materials
July 17: Alliance Global A.G.P.’s Mining & Critical Materials Conference (Virtual)
September 4: UBS Global Materials Conference
September 10: Berenberg Food Ingredients & Chemicals Conference
September 15: Gold Forum Americas
September 20: Raymond James Strategic Metals & Materials Conference (Virtual)
Regional
September 4: Deutsche Bank Access European TMT Conference
September 4: UBS Global Emerging Markets One-on-One Conference
September 4: Goldman Sachs 21st Annual European Medtech and Healthcare Services Conference
September 4: Citibank Global Emerging Market Conference
September 4: Deutsche Bank dbAccess European Technology, Media, and Telecommunication Conference
September 9: Morgan Stanley 27th Annual Latin America Conference
September 17: JP Morgan Emerging Markets Credit Conference
Investor Specific & Multi-Sector
July 25: Bitcoin 2024
August 6: Susquehanna Industrials, Energy & Travel Conference
August 8: Raymond James Industrial and Energy Showcase
August 14: Sidoti August Micro-Cap Conference
August 28: J.P. Morgan CEO Conference Call
September 3: Goldman Sachs EMEA Credit & Leveraged Finance Conference
September 5: Piper Sandler 10th Annual Macro Conference
September 9: Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference
Sources:
1 SDPR S&P 500 ETF, StockCharts, July 12, 2024, https://info.wallstreethorizon.com/e/1032593/2024-07-15/213b2/218033662/h/31wJlfLZyFvso6fcXRevjIAO5rwdoa3weWotZdIn1jc
2 EARNINGS INSIGHT, FactSet, John Butters, July 3, 2024, https://info.wallstreethorizon.com/e/1032593/2024-07-15/213b8/218033662/h/31wJlfLZyFvso6fcXRevjIAO5rwdoa3weWotZdIn1jc
3 HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024), Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2024, https://info.wallstreethorizon.com/e/1032593/2024-07-15/213bg/218033662/h/31wJlfLZyFvso6fcXRevjIAO5rwdoa3weWotZdIn1jc
4 GDPNow, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, July 10, 2024, https://info.wallstreethorizon.com/e/1032593/2024-07-15/213bn/218033662/h/31wJlfLZyFvso6fcXRevjIAO5rwdoa3weWotZdIn1jc
5 Citigroup Economic Surprise, Yardeni, July 12, 2024, https://info.wallstreethorizon.com/e/1032593/2024-07-15/213bv/218033662/h/31wJlfLZyFvso6fcXRevjIAO5rwdoa3weWotZdIn1jc
6 Elections tracker 2024: every vote and why it matters, The Guardian, Helen Livingston, July 7, 2024, https://info.wallstreethorizon.com/e/1032593/2024-07-15/213c2/218033662/h/31wJlfLZyFvso6fcXRevjIAO5rwdoa3weWotZdIn1jc
Wall Street Horizon provides institutional traders and investors with the most accurate and comprehensive forward-looking event data. Covering 9,000 companies worldwide, we offer more than 40 corporate event types via a range of delivery options from machine-readable files to API solutions to streaming feeds. By keeping clients apprised of critical market-moving events and event revisions, our data empowers financial professionals to take advantage of or avoid the ensuing volatility.
Christine Short, VP of Research at Wall Street Horizon, is focused on publishing research on Wall Street Horizon event data covering 9,000 global equities in the marketplace. Over the past 15 years in the financial data industry, her research has been widely featured in financial news outlets including regular appearances on networks such as CNBC and Fox to talk corporate earnings and the economy.
Twitter: @ChristineLShort
The author may hold positions in mentioned securities. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
