The following research was contributed to by Christine Short, VP of Research at Wall Street Horizon.
The Fed is getting what it wants. Jobless claims are on the rise and inflation is sagging. April’s economic data has clearly drifted toward the ‘slowdown’ camp despite a decent monthly jobs report back on Good Friday. Earnings season is also underway, and so far, the numbers have not been all that bad according to FactSet. Of course, estimates have come down significantly from last summer’s highs. Still, bottom-line beats have been sharply outpacing misses, but it’s really all about the guidance and collective tone among CEOs.
A Deteriorating Backdrop
Indeed, words are powerful right now as recession risks ebb and flow. We saw that recently with LVMH discussing how strong China’s reopening has been while domestic technology and manufacturing businesses backup weakness in broad economic gauges such as the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI data. Investor confidence in the U.S. is on edge.
Early Clues from Conferences
Looking ahead, Q2 will no doubt feature important commentary from CEOs and industry leaders at conferences, symposiums, and trade shows. Investors must keep a keen eye on both firm-specific and sector-wide news and forecasts. Earnings releases capture much of the attention with respect to corporate events, however, emerging trends are often discussed first at conferences, and later on the bottom line.
Lower Rates Ahead, But Borrowing Challenges Likely
What else is going on that could be the talk at conferences across sectors? Along with an easing inflation picture and a loosening of the employment landscape, the reality of Fed rate cuts later this year along with a weaker U.S. dollar alter the trends seen over the past many quarters. Capital allocation decisions amid an inflection in the fixed income and forex markets may look different. Also, stricter lending standards following the Silicon Valley Bank crisis along with institutional financial fallout in wake of Credit Suisse needing a rescue only further exacerbate tighter credit markets.
A Volatility Pullback
The good news is that volatility is on the decline. Both the VIX index and the Treasury market’s MOVE gauge have drifted significantly lower since the regional banking saga reached a climax in mid-March. Investors have been able to catch their breath so far this quarter, but much uncertainty remains. For example, the Wall Street Horizon Late Earnings Report Index (LERI), which provides a reading on corporate uncertainty by tracking outlier earnings date changes, currently stands at its highest level in two years.
Questions to ponder:
- How will domestic cyclicals perform amid a stricter credit market? And for how long will the earnings recession last?
- Are tech-related layoffs primarily in the rearview mirror or are bigger “rightsizing” plans on the docket?
- Will China offer the global economy a ray of hope? Indicators suggest its reopening is finally leading to more consumer demand and an uptick in manufacturing and services activity.
- Is Europe a stealth growth engine? Several of the region’s bourses are near 1-year highs.
- At home, is it simply a matter of when, not if, the consumer finally breaks? Excess savings continues to dwindle while the consensus expectation is for a softening in the jobs market.
- And, of course, what does the economic itinerary hold? A hard landing, soft landing, or no landing? We still don’t know but may find out more this quarter.
Conferences, summits, seminars, and other gatherings of leaders across the corporate world are critical for investors to follow. Here are some of the major conferences sourced by Wall Street Horizon that investors and traders should keep on their Q2 calendars.
Information Technology & Communication Services
April 18: JP Morgan 5th ASEAN TMT & Fintech 1×1 Forum (virtual)
May 15: JP Morgan European Technology, Media and Telecoms Conference
May 16: Needham 18th Annual Technology & Media Conference (virtual)
May 18: Bitcoin BTC
May 22: JP Morgan 51st Annual TMT Global Technology Media and Communications Conference
June 5: Apple`s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC)
June 6: Bank of America Securities Global Technology Conference
June 20: Bank of America Technology Media and Communications Conference
Health Care
April 25: Stifel Targeted Oncology Days
May 9: Bank of America Securities Global Healthcare Conference
May 15: The JMP Securities Life Sciences Conference
May 18: Piper Sandler Spring Biopharma Symposium
May 18: Canaccord Genuity US Cannabis Symposium
June 7: Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference
June 12: Goldman Sachs 44th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
June 20: Citi 12th Annual European Healthcare Conference
June 22: JP Morgan European Healthcare Conference
June 29: Stifel Europe, European Healthcare Summit
Consumer Discretionary & Consumer Staples
April 26: OTC Markets iGaming and Entertainment Virtual Investor Conference
May 17: Goldman Sachs Global Consumer Conference
May 31: Mizuho Auto Technology Conference
June 5: JP Morgan European Automotive Conference
June 6: Baird 22nd Annual Global Consumer Technology & Services Conference
June 6: Deutsche Bank 20th Annual dbAccess Global Consumer Conference
June 14: Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference
Financials & Real Estate
April 24: RE/MAX Global Commercial Symposium
May 11: J.P. Morgan Insurance Forum
May 11: Bank of America EMEA Capital Markets Conference
May 16: Janney Montgomery Scott Real Estate Conference (virtual)
May 23: UBS 24th Annual Financial Institutions Conference
May 31: Deutsche Bank dbaccess 12th Annual Global Financial Services Conference
June 13: Goldman Sachs Annual European Financial Services Conference
June 14: Morgan Stanley European Real Estate Capital Markets Conference (London)
Industrials
May 8: Oppenheimer 18th Annual Industrial Growth Conference (virtual)
May 9: Goldman Sachs Industrials & Materials Conference
May 11: Morgan Stanley Business Services One-on-One Day
May 30: KeyBanc Capital Markets Industrials & Basic Materials Conference
June 7: Deutsche Bank dbaccess 14th Annual Global Industrials, Materials & Building Products Conference
June 8: JP Morgan European Capital Goods CEO Conference
June 20: Goldman Sachs Business Services, Leisure and Transport Conference
Energy & Utilities
May 23: Jefferies Renewables & Clean Energy Conference (virtual)
May 25: SG Societe Generale European Renewable Energy Conference (virtual)
June 6: Cowen and Company Sustainability and Energy Transition Summit
June 7: RBC Capital Markets Global Energy, Power and Infrastructure Conference
June 15: Evercore ISI Global Clean Energy & Transition Technologies Summit
June 21: JP Morgan Energy, Power & Renewables Conference
Materials
April 19: Credit Suisse Carbon Negative Conference 3.0
May 9: 121 Mining Investment London
May 10: Canaccord Global Metals & Mining Conference
May 15: Bank of America BofA Global Metals, Mining and Steel Conference
May 23: JP Morgan European Materials Conference
May 30: KeyBanc Capital Markets Industrials & Basic Materials Conference
June 15: RBC Capital Markets Global Mining and Materials Conference
Regional
May 9: UBS Pan European Small and Mid-Cap CEO/CFO Conference (virtual)
May 9: Morgan Stanley Emerging Europe Conference
May 23: Citi Pan-Asia Regional Investor Conference
May 24: Goldman Sachs Asia TechNet Conference
May 30: Morgan Stanley China Summit
May 30: Bank of America Securities Emerging Markets Debt & Equity Conference
Investor Specific & Multi-Sector
May 3: Goldman Sachs European Small and Mid Cap Symposium
May 10: Sidoti May Micro Cap Conference (virtual)
May 11: Oppenheimer 8th Annual Emerging Growth Conference (virtual)
May 16: Jefferies Structural Winners Conference
May 23: Morgan Stanley 8th Annual Sustainable Futures Conference
June 6: Stifel Cross Sector Insight Conference
June 6: William Blair 43rd Annual Growth Stock Conference
June 13: Nasdaq Investor Conference
For more information on the data sourced in this report, please email: info@wallstreethorizon.com
Wall Street Horizon provides institutional traders and investors with the most accurate and comprehensive forward-looking event data. Covering 9,000 companies worldwide, we offer more than 40 corporate event types via a range of delivery options from machine-readable files to API solutions to streaming feeds. By keeping clients apprised of critical market-moving events and event revisions, our data empowers financial professionals to take advantage of or avoid the ensuing volatility.
Christine Short, VP of Research at Wall Street Horizon, is focused on publishing research on Wall Street Horizon event data covering 9,000 global equities in the marketplace. Over the past 15 years in the financial data industry, her research has been widely featured in financial news outlets including regular appearances on networks such as CNBC and Fox to talk corporate earnings and the economy.
Twitter: @ChristineLShort
The author may hold positions in mentioned securities. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
