Once And Future Kings? Stocks Teeter On TSLA, FB, AMZN

I’ve been posting a lot of recent collaborations with Arun Chopra, a good friend who holds a CFA and CMT. Together, we have been blending longer-term fundamental indicators with technical indicators to do historical studies. Today, we look at the “Kings” of the stock market bull run along with the Fed’s dollar policy.

The kings include stocks Tesla (TSLA), Facebook (FB), and Amazon (AMZN).  They all hold a wide investment base and are closely watched by all varieties of investors.  And, for that reason, we recommend watching them here as well.

Some points to consider:

• Rounding top on Tesla with poor balance sheet/cap ex pointing towards secondary in 2016?

• FB strongest growth, operating leverage, margins, but $350B MC value priced into bearish wedge?

• AMZN turns on profit machine after 20 years of just revenue growth but still at 690 double top.

• ORLY 600% EPS growth since 2009 remarkable into 278 double top.

• XLY (NKE, SBUX) strong growth on easy Fed into potential H&S “Kilroy is Here”?

• Note with respect to the “Kings”: The USD takes off in Summer ’14 before end of QE in Oct. ’14: (i) tagging 100 12 months after the beginning of its move and 6 months after the end of QE, (ii) coinciding with tops in the broad market, TSLA and discretionary, and (iii) 12 months after the first dollar tag of 100 we see double tops in other Kings.

We would recommend keeping an eye on the action of “Kings” of the stock market bull run in various potential topping patterns, to measure risk tolerance for growth equities, shorts (in)ability to hit leaders, and the effect of U.S. dollar action on the Kings’ reigns.

Yes, Facebook, Amazon, and Tesla are all well followed.  We recommend following them here too.  Thanks for reading and best of luck out there.

Further Reading:  Equity Valuations: PE10 Ratio Nears Historic Extremes

Twitter:  @JBL73

The authors may have positions in mentioned securities by the time of publication.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.