May 16 Stock Market Futures Outlook – Our weekly trading range for S&P 500 futures remains the same for now (2027-2075), but will shift dramatically if we breach either level and hold overnight.
Within that range, there has been a lot of action. A familiar failed test at 2046 early this morning has buyers struggling to recapture the level at this writing. Deeper support that created buying power needs to be watched at 2035.
Stock market futures charts continue to feel a bit bearish, and a loss of 2038.50 on S&P 500 futures will accelerate this move downward, if the buyers fail to come to the rescue here. That said, this has been a region that buyers have come to save the day, time after time, in this larger current cycle.
If we are able to keep the 2049.75 price retest, buyers are more apt to the retrace upward back into resistance near 2051.25, and 2054.25, before sellers try to force buyers back down again. Lots of overhead supply exists.
Momentum on the four-hour chart is still bearish, but flattening- some choppy action continues to be likely, with sellers likely to show up at key resistance levels. Congestion of price makes directional breaks somewhat difficult.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF TUESDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
May 16, 2016 outlook for crude oil futures (CL_F) – Oil has held its bounce at 45.75 and is advancing back into resistance levels. Caught below the group of sellers near 47.19- 47.27, we are stalled and trying to gather steam. All signs at this time point to another press upward, so watch the pullbacks to present buying setups.
The trading range for crude oil suggests support action near 46.15, and resistance behavior near 47.74.
Upside trades can be staged on the positive retest of 46.49, or a bounce off 46.74, but watch for resistance after the breach of 46.74, near 47.04, and 47.24. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 46.49 are 46.64, 46.74, 47.03, 47.15, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 47.35, 47.74 to 48.15. Upper targets loom near 48.35.
Downside trades on crude oil seem feasible below the failed retest of 46.7, or at the failed retest of 47.04 with negative divergence – careful to watch for higher lows at the short on the resistance level. We remain in a very important congestion zone on larger time frames. Retracement into lower levels from 46.7 give us the targets 46.59, 46.24, 46.04, 45.96, 45.74, 45.56, 45.27, 45.04, and perhaps 44.78, 44.57, 44.34, 44.18, and 44.04, though these deeper supports look quite unlikely today.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F) Â
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
May 16 Stock Market Futures Outlook (ES_F – S&P 500 futures) – Trading appears to be quite range bound, but retesting the edges of key support near 2034 on S&P 500 futures.
Upside trades will be into resistance, and against intraday trend. This trend will shift if buyers are hiding here at support. The best setup sits on the positive retest of 2049.75, or a bounce off 2041.75 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2041.75 are 2044.75, 2048.75, 2051.75, 2054.25, 2057.25, 2060.5, 2063.25, 2066.5, 2069.25, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2072.5, 2074.25, and 2078.25. This setup is likely to hold through the week as long as we can hold support.
Downside trades on open below the failed retest of 2049.5 or at the failed retest of 2041.25 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 2049.25 gives us the targets 2044.75, 2041.75, 2038.5, 2035.25, 2032.75, 2028.5, and perhaps 2026.25.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
