- Investors are on edge about what tariff policy means for markets
- Coming off a strong Q4 earnings season, fresh February corporate sales figures can help assess the macro situation
- We focus on the consumer, the chips industry, and what a host of asset managers may reveal as interim data reports roll in
Volatility is back in town. Tariff jitters and concerns about growth and inflation have resulted in an S&P 500 dip and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumping above 20.
Investors grapple with a very sanguine backdrop painted by the fourth-quarter earnings season and policy uncertainty. With NVIDIA’s (NVDA) report last week, Q4 boasted the best bottom-line growth rate for the S&P 500 since 2021.1 Moreover, CEOs are the most confident (by the Wall Street Horizon Late Earnings Report Index or LERI) in two years despite unknowns on trade, taxes, and tariffs.
Consumers do not appear to be feeling as upbeat, though. Just take a look at recent gauges. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment dropped 10% in its latest look amid household concerns that President Trump’s tariffs would bring about another inflation wave.2
Then, last week, The Conference Board largely backed up what UMich signaled. According to that report (which is more tied to labor market conditions than inflation), household vibes dropped by the most since 2021.3
From Froth to Fear
Uncertainty has crept into investors’ psyche, too. The weekly survey published by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) tallied the third-highest number of net bears since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.4 It’s a sharp turnaround from frothy feelings about stock prices around the turn of the year.5 The CNN Fear and Greed Index notched “extreme fear” after the market sell-off last Thursday as well.6 But it’s important to call out that the most intense downside since mid-February has come from the momentum factor, not a broad washout across the 11 sectors.
CEOs Still Upbeat
So, we enter the final month of the first quarter at an interesting crossroads. The hard economic data is not bad by any means, but confidence both among households and investors has taken a gut punch. The LERI and The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index are encouraging, but we’ve yet to see the much-anticipated wave of M&A, IPOs, and big-time CAPEX (ex-the AI hyperscalers) so far in 2025.7
We might get the first breadcrumbs on how the year progresses via interim data reported by some of the world’s most important bellwether companies over the next two weeks. Between earnings seasons, there’s plenty of data to parse from monthly sales reports, production numbers, AUM totals, and activity highlights.
This week, we highlight a handful of such firms that may alleviate macro worries, or make recession chatter grow louder.
March 6: Costco (COST) February Sales Results
If you are on the hunt for signs of an economic slowdown, you won’t find them in Costco’s wide aisles. A month ago, the $454 billion market cap Consumer Staples company reported a strong 9.8% jump in January sales (excluding gas and foreign exchange) as shoppers remain focused on value.8 Last December, Costco beat on the top and bottom lines with total company adjusted comparable sales growth of 7.1% in its fiscal first quarter.9
We’ll get February comp-store sales figures this Thursday after the bell along with full fiscal Q2 results. Soft top-line numbers will likely fuel macro worries, but another strong report could keep the market bears at bay. This will be a particularly important earnings report, but the value of interim data—the February sales update—is particularly high this go around.
March 10: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Monthly Revenue Report
The consumer situation is key for US markets, but there’s uncertainty about the state of semiconductors. NVIDIA reported solid figures last week, but shares tumbled by more than 8% in the session after the release—the worst earnings reaction in at least the last three years, according to Option Research & Technology Services.10
From an industry price-action perspective, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) plunged 6% in the wake of NVIDIA’s Q4 report, one of its biggest drops in the last several years. More volatility could come about early next week when Taiwan Semi announces February net revenue. January’s 5.4% net sales increase was received fine by Wall Street, but TSM shares, like NVDA, are down notably to begin 2025.11
March 11-19: Asset Manager Updates
After glimpses at the consumer and the chip industry, interim reports from major financial services companies and brokerage firms begin rolling in. Invesco Ltd (IVZ) is the first notable one on March 11, and its February AUM report could reveal another healthy period of client inflows and AUM growth thanks to stellar market returns.
From February 1, 2024, the S&P 500 returned more than 20% through the end of last month. International stocks have made a nice comeback recently, helping the ex-US equity index to post low double-digit returns over the same period. The aggregate bond market delivered a modest gain, too. For Invesco, the $7.7 billion market cap Financials sector company hopes to build on January’s 3.1% January AUM rise.12
T. Rowe Price (TROW) publishes its February AUM report the following day, Charles Schwab (SCHW) serves up its monthly Activity Highlights report on March 14, and Raymond James (RJF) reports February Operating Data on March 19. Each update could underscore that while uncertainty exists on the global economic outlook, investors have benefitted from rising asset prices in the past year.
The Bottom Line
Markets enter (perhaps “stumble into” is a better characterization) March amid anxiety about the durability of GDP growth and the chance of an inflation increase. Despite a gangbuster earnings season in the rearview mirror, eyes are focused on what lies ahead. Investors must analyze the very latest company data trends to decipher signal from noise. Costco, Taiwan Semiconductor, and a slew of brokerage houses could offer leading indicators of how the global economic situation unfolds.
Sources:
1 Earnings Insight, FactSet, John Butters, February 28, 2025, https://advantage.factset.com
2 Dow drops 700 points for worst day of 2025 so far on new fears about economic growth: Live updates, CNBC, Brian Evans, February 21, 2025, https://www.cnbc.com
3 February consumer confidence posts biggest drop since 2021 in latest sign of slowing economy, CNBC, Jeff Cox, February 25, 2025, https://www.cnbc.com
4 AAII Bulls – AAII Bears, StockCharts, February 28, 2025, https://schrts.co
5 Investors have never been more confident that stock prices will appreciate, CNBC, Fred Imbert, December 3, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com
6 Fear & Greed Index, CNN Business, February 28, 2025, https://www.cnn.com
7 CEO Confidence Increased Sharply in Q1 2025, The Conference Board, February 20, 2025, https://www.conference-board.org
8 Costco Wholesale Corporation Reports January Sales Results, Costco, February 5, 2025, https://investor.costco.com
9 Costco beats on earnings as e-commerce sales jump, CNBC, Melissa Repko, December 12, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com
10 NVDA, ORATS, February 28, 2025, https://dashboard.orats.com
11 TSMC January 2025 Revenue Report and the Statement on the Impact of Earthquake, TSMC, February 10, 2025, https://pr.tsmc.com
12 Invesco Ltd. Announces January 31, 2025 Assets Under Management, Invesco Ltd., February 11, 2025, https://invesco2021tf.q4web.com
Twitter: @ChristineLShort
The author may hold positions in mentioned securities. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
