After peaking overnight, March 22 stock market futures headed lower into support near 2034.75. The move lower was ccelerated by the news from Brussels of a bombing.
The S&P 500 futures chart is still holding a bullish trending formation, testing new near term support currently -momentum is bullish but waning. Support to defend is at the region between 2025-2027, and below that 2021-2017.75. Resistance sits above 2042.5-2047.25. Tests of these ranges are likely to fail and retest, before continuing in the direction of either break – deep support is still likely to be defended. I suspect buyers will aggressively attempt to defend 2032-2034 as they did yesterday.
Momentum on the four hour chart for March 22 stock market futures is positive, but drifting a bit lower –the slope of the trend suggests buyers will still show up at key support levels. Continue to watch for higher lows to continue, if buyers hold momentum and bounce price off support. The failed retest of the 2025 area will signal more bearish momentum.
Shorter time frame momentum indicators are sloping up; momentum is still positive, but weakening somewhat -this makes buying breakouts somewhat suspect.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF THURSDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
The outlook for crude oil futures is in a holding pattern as traders await the API Report after the close today. Crude oil appears a bit top heavy today but firmly held by support near 41. The level for buyers to hold is 40 for bullish action to hold. Buyers will become less aggressive if we lose that level today.
Today, the trading ranges are between 40.01 and 42.46. Breaks of these levels are likely retrace before moving again in the direction of strength.
Moving averages in oil show tight coiling, and slightly dampening momentum on longer time frames. Resistance sits near 42.46-42.8 – it seems buyers have their eyes on that range, but have not been able to test the upper edges of that space yet. Sellers are firmly camped at 42.45ish.
Intraday long trade setup suggests a long off a breach of 41.82 positive retest (check momentum here), or 41.48 bounce and hold into 42.25, 42.41, 42.78, 43.01, and if buyers hold on, we’ll see 43.12 to potentially 43.46.
Intraday short trade setup suggests a short below a 41.2 failed retest with negative divergence, or the failed retest of 42.4 sends us back through targets at 41.78, 41.36, 41.27, 40.87, 40.42, 40.04, 39.6, and 38.67, if sellers hang on.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F) Â
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
Buyers and sellers battle in contested regions near 2034 for the third day in a row. The levels between 2047.25-2044.5 serve as front line resistance, with 2025.5-2031.5 now as support. Stretches north could see 2054.5 as final targets north in this move, and deep support could be as far south at 2014.
I suspect stock market futures have a greater chance of downside movement into support as the charts continue to look heavy.
Upside motion has the best setup on the positive retest of 2037.5 or a recapture of 2031.75 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. S&P 500 futures targets from 2031.75 are 2034.5, 2037.25, 2040.5, 2042.5, 2044.5, 2047.5, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2051.75 and 2057.5. The higher lows will keep you on the right side of the long trade.
Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 2031 or at the failed retest of 2037.5 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 2034 gives us the targets 2031.75, 2028.75, 2025.5, 2021.25, 2019.5, 2015.5, 2012.25, 2010.25, 2005.5, 2001.75, and perhaps 1997.5 if selling really takes hold (unlikely in this formation, but clearly possible if buyers lose their footing).
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Thanks for reading.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
