Among the throngs of headlines on X, this one came out today
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP JUST SAID: – ANNOUNCED THE TARIFF PAUSE BECAUSE PEOPLE GETTING AFRAID – REVERSED TARIFFS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, NOTHING IS OVER YET
Earlier today, Trump shared “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT”
Those who follow me regularly know that I have ranted about taking Trump and his right-hand men at face value.
Clearly, the market did after he first foreshadowed the rally and then announced the 9-day moratorium on tariffs.
Later, he announced that
“I WAS WATCHING BOND MARKETS; BOND MARKET NOW IS BEAUTIFUL”
That took me right to the chart of the 20+ Year Treasury Bonds ETF (NASDAQ: TLT), which also made a spectacular turnaround.
The chart shows a classic reversal pattern. New 60+ day low, and a close near the top 25% of the intraday trading range.
The treasury bonds etf (TLT) also cleared back over the January 6-month calendar range high.
While the S&P 500 etf (SPY) was well underperforming long-dated treasury bonds, today, the long bonds took a backseat to SPY.
The Real Motion indicator is flatlining but does not show anything significant in the way of divergence.
Volume, not shown, indicates a flush to the downside.
Now, the price must confirm the reversal.
That means that Thursday, TLT must close above today’s high or 88.76.
Twitter: @marketminute
The author may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
