For the new year, we have given you an extensive 3-prong look at the markets.
First is the general outlook for the economy and markets through the Outlook 2024.
This is the general outlook for 2024 that includes the recap of 2023 with how the predictions I made then played out.
It includes a comparison in inflation and disinflation patterns of the 1970s and now.
It also includes all the indices and the general outlook for key sectors and the bonds, dollar, metals, and so on.
Moreover, we look at the Economic Modern Family and their outliers through charts and analysis.
It also includes overall trends to watch plus picks.
One other area I cover in the Outlook 2024 is the teachings of Raymond Lo and how he sees the upcoming Year of the Dragon.
Part of my comments on his analysis is based on this statement by LO:
“Many has the misunderstanding that the Dragon is glamorous auspicious animal and will always bring good luck. To the contrary, Dragon and Dog in the 12-animal system is called the “Gate to Heaven and Hell” or the “Net of Heaven and Hell”.
General thoughts
2024 could see gains-however, we are agnostic and definitely looking to charts.
SPY needs to hold 4600 as our line in the sand and small caps need to hold over 2000.
Plus, in January we will have a 6-month calendar reset-this year with the election, instruments that fail the calendar range lows could set the stage for a broader sell off while instruments that rally above the calendar range highs can be the bigger winners at least for the first half of the year.
Nonetheless, we have keen eyes on junk bonds, which although have rallied, have well underperformed the indices. If they hold, great, if not, we take that as a warning.
With the anticipation of Fed lowering rates multiple times, we also want to see Fed Fund rates stabilize and not fall too dramatically as that could be the signs of recession which we seemingly avoided in 2023.
Additionally, we expounded with Daily newsletters.
More From Mish’s Outlook 2024-Gold and Silver
For last year’s Outlook I wrote, “Perhaps our biggest callout for a major rally in 2023 is in gold.”
Here we are over $2000 and although gold has not doubled in price, it did rise by 25%.
For 2024, we stay with our call for higher gold prices. I am looking for a move to $2400 at least provided gold continues to hold $1980.
That statement was from December 1st.
Adding to that statement:
Trends for 2024-gold and silver start their last hurrah.
Then, there is More From Mish’s Outlook-17 Predictions
With certain areas of inflation coming down-although still higher than what numbers suggest-the discussion of the rate hike cycle at the end is controversial
Statistically, there has been a major financial failure at the end of each rate hike cycle since 1965.
Currently, the catalyst for financial stress could be the rising debt, rising spending, geopolitical issues impacting supply chain and a contentious election year.
And anything that gooses inflation will stop the Fed from cutting.
Although the stats are on the side of a higher market, this year of the dragon suggests some irritation that could turn the market on its side with more volatility.
To be prepared check out our predictions.
Finally, we did a piece on the The Vanity Trade 2024-All About Me!
“Self-help or self-improvement is a self-directed improvement of oneself—economically, physically, intellectually, or emotionally—often with a substantial psychological basis.”
In the Outlook 2024 I quote Raymod Lo again,
“The Dragon is considered a ‘Star of Arts.’ The industries that will perform better in the year of the Dragon will be industries related to Metal element and Wood element. Metal industries are beauty, and skin care…. Wood industries are media, fashion….”
This got me thinking about the consumer and the habits of 2023 and how they could continue or change in 2024.
Fashion, beauty, skin care, elective surgeries, self-help, diet drugs, and maybe even dating stocks do well.
This daily includes lots of picks to put on your radar.
Click HERE to get your free copy of the Outlook 2024 and stay in the loop!
Twitter: @marketminute
The author may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
