The following chart and data highlight non-commercial commodity futures trading positions as of May 1, 2018.
This data was released with the May 4 COT Report (Commitment of Traders). Note that this chart also appeared on my blog.
The chart below looks at non-commercial futures trading positions for Gold. For the week, the price of spot Gold fell -0.7%.
Here’s a look at Gold futures speculative positioning. Scroll further down for commentary and analysis.
Gold Futures:Â Currently net long 106.8k, down 29.9k.
In two weeks, the cash ($1,314.70/ounce) travelled from the daily upper Bollinger band to the lower. After getting rejected at $1,360-70 resistance on April 18, gold quickly dropped to test $1,300, which is the lower bound of a nearly two-year range.
This time around, that support approximates the 200-day as well as a rising trend line from December 2016. A loss of this exposes the metal to a test of trend-line support around $1,285 from December 2015. That was when gold bottomed at $1,045.40 after peaking in September 2011 at $1,923.70. Gold bugs cannot afford to lose this.
By the looks of things, they are not ready to give away $1,300. There is room to rally (more here), particularly if the US dollar weakens. The 50-day lies at $1,329.77.
Flows can always improve. In the week through Wednesday, GLD (SPDR gold ETF) lost $187 million, even as IAU (iShares gold trust) took in $88 million (courtesy of ETF.com).
Non-commercials are the other wildcard. They have been cutting back net longs. But even in the face of this, the cash has not lost $1,300.
Twitter:Â @hedgopia
Author may hold a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Â Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
