See It Market contributors have been all over the move lower in Crude Oil (WTIC) that has unfolded over since CL established it’s late August swing high at 112.24/bbl (check out two of the latest, from 11/5 here and from 11/11 over here). Now after bouncing off mid-last week’s swing low at 93.07 into a rising wedge to as high as 95.38 yesterday, Crude is breaking down once again, printing 93.32 last.
In the pieces linked above, Andy Nyquist and I both note the importance of $92 support in Crude Oil’s short-term context. I even go so far as to point out the trend line passing through the $90-$92 level right now has only broken on a decisive basis once in the last 12 years: during the end of the world. Crude breaking down through this line wouldn’t qualify as a harbinger of the apocalypse in the current market environment. However, There’s no denying a snap below that level constitutes a major breakdown that begs some major questions about the health of Oil’s cyclical up-trend. In fact, below $89.79 constitutes a formal bear market at -20% off the $112.24 high.
This secondary downtrend underway since $112.24 has thrown off numerous measured moves that have created structured support, first at $90/bbl and about 5% further below $86/bbl, as seen below.
Crude Oil Correction (CL) – Daily: Potential Measured Moves to $93, $90, and $86
Twitter: @andrewunknown and @seeitmarket
Author holds no exposure to securities mentioned at the time of publication.
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