It’s been a while since my last Coffee futures post. And quite a bit has changed since then so I wanted to update my view on Coffee and provide some near-term and longer-term coffee futures price targets.
CTRL-ALT-DEL Friday’s close took out my targeted buy zone and negates the count that I was using.
Trader know the drill… that’s why we use stops and measure our risk… some patterns work, some don’t, and some need to be reset.
So, back to the drawing board we go. I’ve erased everything and will work down from time frames starting with Monthly to Weekly to Daily to highlight some coffee futures price targets and support levels.
Coffee Futures Monthly Chart: If we break the red trend line, then expect the buy to be 97.57 – 98.71.
Here’s what I’m watching:
- Note measured move in the 1997-1999 time frame (blue arrows)
- Seasonally, note November is the month that began major legs up.
- Next month will coincide with an 84 month cycle.
- RSI hit the lowest level since 2001 and if we break to new lows then we’ll have a potentially bullish divergence set up.
- Coffee futures prices never hit the “exact” .786 retracement so that level is still key. Additionally we have a .618 monthly coffee futures price target and projection that is stilling almost exactly on the .786.
- Note, we are right on/at the red trend line that began in 2001.
Coffee Futures Weekly: Sticking with the highlighted region above being a 3 wave B wave and we are in an extended C wave that HAS to send above the November 2013 low to be a valid and bullish count.
Here’ s what I’m watching:
- Take note of the .786 retracement and .618 projection – they are just a little lower and still valid. However, those coffee futures price targets would negate my count.
- RSI has been going UP as Coffee has been going down. That’s bullish divergence YET it broke the key up trend line (dashed green line on the RSI) that has been in place since April.
- A 1.732 extension price target is out there at 110.68.
- A basic 36 week time cycle is present and due to hit in a couple weeks
continue reading on the next page…
