Friday the markets are closed, and I am taking a brief hiatus beginning Thursday April 17, returning Monday April 21.
Over the past week, I covered the 20+ year treasury bonds (TLT), a few picks that are holding up very well, and the MAGS ETF with a warning about the MAG7.
For the long weekend, we will look at the Economic Modern Family (our favorite stock market ETFs and indices) and what they are telling us right now.
The charts are weekly charts using the 50- and 200-week moving averages.
With our Retail Sector (XRT) indicator, we see indecision with this week’s trading range inside last week’s range.
XRT failed the weekly moving averages a while ago. However, we are watching $64 very carefully.
A break under 64 and should April close the month beneath there, we will have little confidence in the economy avoiding recession.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) has already broken the 80-month moving average, or the 6–8-year business cycle for the first time since it did so briefly in 2023.
With an inside week like XRT, the signs are not great.
Biotechnology (IBB) with threats of tariffs, I would simply avoid.
Semiconductors (SMH), holds steadfast above the 200-WMA even in the face of the tariffs and chip ban to China.
However, SMH is contracting from its 2-year business cycle growth period.
Should the 200-WMA fail, or $165, we would be even more cautious.
As for the rest of the Family,
Transportation (IYT) has not traded under the 80-month MA since Covid.
That level comes in just under 57.00, close.
Regional Banks (KRE) failed the key moving averages already.
We may see some support around the June 2024 lows or 45.
All in all, this basket Sectors and Indices is not feeling all Easter Bunny and eggs.
Bitcoin BTCUSD, the newest family member, is feeling a wee bit better.
Keep your eyes on 81,000. That is the support to hold.
Have a wonderful long weekend!
Twitter: @marketminute
The author may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
