April 20 S&P 500 Futures Update: Are Bulls Nearing Exhaustion?

The outlook or April 20 S&P 500 futures will largely depend on how it deals with overhead resistance.

Currently, S&P 500 futures are bouncing off congestion regions of 2085-2088.75. Yesterday, I said the pullback into 2084-2088 would drive support action. We are seeing that now – stock market futures held the lower level and bounced nicely.

That said, we appear to be producing lower highs at this point. 2094 on S&P 500 futures will be an important breach and retest pivot point. If we can do this, the bullish action will continue. Traders continue to ignore divergent technical behavior beneath the surface. Resistance for April 20 S&P 500 futures sits near 2101.75 to 2104.75. Support holds tight for now at 2082.5- 2084

Momentum on the four hour chart is still quite bullish. Short trades here are very countertrend, in general, and should be staged off the rejection of resistance into early support targets.

Shorter intraday time frame momentum indicators are positive but failing as we test resistance at 2094 for now. Buyers will try to defend the 2084-2088 region once more, if we reject 2094

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

THE RANGE OF THURSDAY’S MOTION

Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)

April 20 Crude oil outlook– The chart holds bullish form, but there is a pesky rising wedge forming. The Kuwait workers strike is over so buyers may be a bit more tentative as the chart tries to retest support. Buyers cleared the 200 daily near 40.67.

Today, the trading ranges for crude oil futures are 40.67-42.97. Key support is near 40.67 – key resistance near 42.97.

Moving averages in oil are bullish on tighter intraday time frames, and bullish on longer intraday time frames – giving the clear advantage to the buyer. Resistance ahead will be on the watch. Failure to breach 42.52 at this next test will bring sellers in to exert power on the charts back into support. Breach of that area will create range expansion to the north into 42.9 and perhaps 43.3. Double topping is fairly likely.

Intraday long trading setups on crude oil futures suggest a long off a 41.97 or 41.3 positive retest on the pullback (check momentum here) into targets of 41.58, 41.92, 42.24, 42.57, 42.9 and if buyers hold on, we’ll see 43.3 to 43.93.

Intraday short trading setups suggest a short below a 41.3 failed retest, or the failed retest of 41.9 (with negative momentum prevailing) sends us back through targets at 41.65, 41.34, 41.04, 40.78, 40.45, and 39.94, if sellers hang on.

E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F)  

Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.

April 20 S&P 500 futures outlook– The levels between 2094- 2095.75 serve as front line resistance. Front line support sits near 2088.5- 2085.75 region. Buyers are still ready to use their strength to retest highs of yesterday morning, but it is important to watch for the lower highs as we jam ourselves up into prior resistance levels.

Upside motion for S&P 500 futures has the best setup on the positive retest of 2088.75 or a retest of 2094.25 with positive momentum – eyes on resistance at 2096.5 -2098.5 with this 2094.25 entry. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2088.75 are 2093.5, 2096.5, 2098.25, 2100.5, 2101.5, 2104.5, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2107.25, 2110.25, and 2112.5. Long action is still trending over the bigger picture for now.

Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 2093 or at the failed retest of 2098 with negative divergence (careful here- watch for the higher low to develop to tell you that an early exit might be necessary). Retracement into lower levels from 2093 gives us the targets 2091.25, 2088.50, 2086.75, 2084.75, 2081.75, 2078.25, and perhaps 2076.75 to 2071.5. Buyers should still come to the rescue at the deep support, particularly at the first pass.

If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Thanks for reading.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.