The Morning Report  –  Outlook for April 19 stock market futures (S&P 500)
The S&P 500 futures chart expanded into trending formations yesterday and has held within the higher resistance regions. That said, traders have ignored divergent technical behavior beneath and have driven the ES_F into the next big region of congestion here at 2098.
The first test of resistance for S&P 500 futures will likely be rejected by the level. But look for the pullbacks to find buyers into support near 2088.75 first, and if it fails there, then 2084.5 will loom as the next support zone. Resistance sits near 2101.75 to 2104.75. Expansion further north could see 2110 to 2112, but again, lots about the chart shows collapse of price once it gets to its final destination. This is good for the short term trader, but not for the investor acquiring instruments to hold over the long haul.
Momentum on the four hour chart into April 19 stock market futures is bullish, and sellers were crushed as the buyers shoved past 2077.5 resistance yesterday. If the chart fades at the 2098 level as I anticipate it will (into higher support), I’ll be watching the test near 2077.5 if it cannot hold 2082.5. Short trades here are very countertrend and should only be into early support targets as buyers are exerting so much power.
Shorter time frame momentum indicators are positive but failing as we test resistance at 2098 for now. Buyers will try to defend 2084 and 2088 at the first pass.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
THE RANGE OF THURSDAY’S MOTION
Crude Oil Futures (CL_F)
The outlook for crude oil futures into April 19 remains firm. The contract roll into higher volumes of trading occurred yesterday and the chart quickly filled its gap and moved up into congestion levels familiar to last week.
In general, the chart for crude oil holds bullish form, so we expect buyers to come in at support, and long trades to be the intraday trade with the most heat. Buyers have now cleared the 200 daily and though a retest would be most stable, it continues to appear that oil will continue to head north and pullbacks will remain attractive buying areas.
Today, the trading ranges for crude oil future are 40.11 -42.9. Key support is near 40.77 – key resistance near 42.2.
Moving averages in oil are bullish on tighter intraday time frames, and bullish on longer intraday time frames – giving the clear advantage to the buyer. Resistance ahead will be on the watch. Failure to breach 42.47 will bring sellers in to exert power on the charts back into support. Breach of that area will create range expansion to the north into 42.9 and perhaps 43.3.
Intraday long trading setups for crude oil futures suggest a long off a 41.96 or 41.07 positive retest on the pullback (check momentum here), into targets of 41.65, 41.88, 42.2, 42.57, 42.9 and if buyers hold on, we’ll see 43.3 to 43.93.
Intraday short trading setups suggest a short below a 41.01 failed retest, or the failed retest of 41.9 (with negative momentum prevailing) sends us back through targets at 41.65, 41.34, 41.04, 40.78, 40.45, and 39.94, if sellers hang on.
Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures  (ES_F) Â
Below is a S&P 500 futures chart with price support and resistance trading levels for today. Click to enlarge.
The short-term outlook for April 19 stock market futures continues to be bullish. But when looking at S&P 500 futures, higher levels between 2098- 2104.5 will serve as front line resistance.
Price support can be found near 2088.5- 2082.5 region. Yesterday, I expected a range bound day – that clearly did not happen. With the slant to the buyers that I mentioned (see yesterday’s post), breakouts should be watched at the retest. When a chart breaches resistance, we should be always on the lookout for traders who buy the breakouts and sell the breakdowns. This is what happened on the breakout yesterday. Buyers look poised again to take advantage of their strength, but it is important to watch for the lower highs as we jam ourselves up into prior resistance levels.
Upside motion on S&P 500 futures has the best setup on the positive retest of 2088.75 or a retest of 2093.75 with positive momentum – eyes on resistance at 2098.5 with this 2093.75 entry. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2088.75 are 2093.5, 2096.5, 2098.25, 2100.5, 2101.5, 2104.5, and if we can catch a bid there, we could expand into 2107.25, 2110.25, and 2112.5. Long action is still trending over the bigger picture for now, but momentum, though positive, is still steadily drifting lower on longer time frames.
Downside motion opens below the failed retest of 2093 or at the failed retest of 2098.5 with negative divergence (careful here- watch for the higher low to develop to tell you that an early exit might be necessary). Retracement into lower levels from 2093 gives us the targets 2091.25, 2088.50, 2086.75, 2084.75, 2081.75, 2078.25, and perhaps 2076.75 to 2071.5. Buyers should still come to the rescue at the deep support, particularly at the first pass.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as traders remain aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Thanks for reading.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
