In terms of market dynamics, 2012 and 2013 could hardly be more different for Apple (AAPL).
Last year saw AAPL rally with an open at $409.86, soaring as high as $705.07 (+72%, trough-to-peak) in late September and then viciously correcting to close out the year (still +34%) at $549.03. Though 2013’s $553.82-$385.10 range (less than half 2012 at -30.5% peak-to-trough) has been formidable, except for a handful of sessions at both extremes AAPL has spent this year-t0-date consolidating the last between $410-$480.
Now pushing back yet again toward the higher end of this range: is it time for AAPL to break back into the $500s?
Last week Andy Nyquist noted a retest of AAPL’s 50-Day and 200-Day Simple Moving Average point of convergence might be underway; and sure enough, the stock tested and breached this level ($463), only to rebound after two sessions below the 200-DSMA. After a cursory break below $450, the 50-day and 200-day have been recovered.
Since Andy’s post, AAPL‘s trading has been littered with gaps: 3 opening gaps: down on Monday (09/15), up on Wednesday (09/18) and up again this morning (09/19) – not to mention last Tuesday’s monster $27.50 gap-down to open near $467.
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Is an AAPL rally back toward $520 next? The way above unfolds at $10 intervals.
Over $475, AAPL pushes back above the its 09/12 swing high to take on last Tuesday’s gap in earnest. This opens the way to $485 where older gap and horizontal resistance comes into play. If $485 is reclaimed, trade gets noisier with January and now September 2013’s $485-$515 congestion zones to work through.
As Andy also pointed out, a rally to $515-$520 brings AAPL into major fibonacci and gap resistance. As you’ll note, that level poses dense resistance; and with a glance at the upper-left corner of the chart, late 2012’s choppy and gap-ridden activity suggests a move over $520 toward $600 would be hard-fought.
More on that level and targets above when/if AAPL rallies there in the coming days.
Twitter: @andrewunknown and @seeitmarket
Author holds no position in instruments mentioned at the time of publication.
Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
