- Shares of NVIDIA soared 171% in 2024, but quieted in the back half of the year
- The company will present at two of the biggest conferences of the year this week and next
- With its Q4 earnings report not due out until late February, investors may pay close attention to Jensen Huang’s comments on Blackwell chips and how AI demand is trending in the coming days
The same themes that drove sharp 2024 returns among the Magnificent 7 stocks appear to be very much alive in the new year. All eyes are on how the AI story plays out in 2025 after many quarters of heavy capex spending among US megacaps.
Indeed, it has been an arms race to secure leading positions in the current tech revolution. One of the most notable beneficiaries has been NVIDIA (NVDA).
The semiconductor industry company enjoyed tailwinds throughout last year’s first half. Shares soared from under $50 a year ago (split-adjusted) to above $140 by late June of 2024. Despite healthy earnings beats in August and November, the stock traded sideways through year-end. Despite the churn, NVDA returned 171% for the year, leaving the S&P 500®’s 25% total return in the dust.1
Given the chip stock’s massive weighting in the S&P 500 Index,Nvidia (NVDA) accounted for more than one-fifth of the S&P 500’s 2024 gain.2
So, there are mixed signals with the AI darling. On the one hand, 2024 was yet another stellar year, but recent momentum has wavered. What’s more, ahead of earnings in February, investors may have key events on tap this month that could bring about share-price volatility. Our data show that NVIDIA is set to present at a pair of the biggest industry conferences of 2025.
NVIDIA Events on Tap
First, CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote at CES (formerly known as the Consumer Electronics Show) on Monday, January 6, at 6:30 p.m. PT.3 The event in Las Vegas brings together some of the brightest minds in the consumer and tech worlds. Monday night is just the beginning, though, as CES runs through Thursday this week. Next, NVIDIA is confirmed to take part in a fireside chat with analysts at J.P. Morgan on Tuesday morning.4 Later in the day, the management team will hold a financial analyst Q&A with the event organizer.5
NVIDIA is expected to showcase its latest robotics innovations, the launch of its RTX 50xx gaming graphics cards, a possible entry into the AI PC market, and, of course, the latest happenings with its Blackwell and Rubin chips. Investors will likely pay particular attention to what Jensen and others have to say about reported Blackwell issues, including possible defects and production delays, which may have pressured shares at times during 2024’s second half.6 On the plus side, NVIDIA reported record quarterly Data Center revenue in Q3, which blew past analysts’ estimates.7
The trio of specific volatility catalysts in the coming sessions should command investors’ attention. Heading into CES, NVDA shares traded with 45% implied volatility, according to data from Option Research & Technology Services (ORATS). NVDA’s realized volatility has dropped from peak levels seen last August and September (between 70-80%), now ranging from 35-40% since November.8
Could CES be the spark that sets off a new big move in the $3.4 trillion market cap stock? We’ll have to wait and see.
Jensen Takes Center Stage
Then, next week, NVIDIA is on the road again at the 43rd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, which runs from Monday, January 13, through the following Thursday. At the 2024 event, Jensen’s line, “This year, every industry will become a technology company,” proved prescient.9 We saw even non-tech firms dip their toes into AI.
According to FactSet, more than 40% of S&P 500 companies cited “AI” on earnings calls by the second quarter of last year.10 Firms in the Financials sector, Industrials, and Health Care were all on watch for AI trends. With the Q4 2024 reporting period getting unofficially underway on January 15, investors should expect more AI mentions, along with questions from analysts about the extent to which related investments are being made.
Increased AI Chatter on Company Conference Calls
Finally, it’s still early, but NVIDIA reports fiscal Q4 2025 results on Wednesday, February 26 AMC, with a conference call likely immediately after the numbers hit the tape. The consensus calls for $0.85 in non-GAAP EPS for the quarter ending in January, and that marks bottom-line growth of 64%. For FY 2025, per-share earnings are expected to rise by 128% to $2.95 with 50% EPS growth in the out year.11
BofA recently noted that NVIDIA’s 50% forecasted sales increase could make it the fastest top-line grower in the S&P 500 this year with the potential for a 20%-plus revenue increase in FY 2026. Its analysts also call out the company’s modest 0.6x forward PEG ratio as being low compared to other large technology stocks trading 2-2.5x on a PEG basis.12
The Bottom Line
It’s a new year, but some of the same themes that drove price action in 2024 are likely to be in focus in 2025. AI is poised to snatch the spotlight once again this week at CES with Jensen Huang delivering the keynote tonight. NVIDIA then takes the stage a couple more times in Las Vegas before the firm heads west to San Francisco next week at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare conference – an event at which Jensen made headlines in 2024. Traders should brace for possible volatility and keep their eyes on earnings forecast trends ahead of NVIDIA’s Q4 report in February.
Sources:
1 NVDA, StockCharts, January 3, 2025, https://schrts.co/zGayZzNe
2 Nvidia’s AI Surge Powers 25% of S&P 500 Gains in 2024, Makes Co-founder Huang Among Fastest Growing: Report, Yahoo Finance, Anusuya Lahiri, September 16, 2024, https://finance.yahoo.com
3 NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang to Deliver CES 2025 Keynote, CES, October 7, 2024, https://www.ces.tech
4 J.P. Morgan CES Fireside Chat, NVIDIA, January 3, 2025, https://investor.nvidia.com
5 CES Financial Analyst QA, CES, January 3, 2025, https://investor.nvidia.com
6 Nvidia’s Future Relies on Chips That Push Technology’s Limits, The Wall Street Journal, Asa Fitch, August 30, 2024, https://www.wsj.com
7 NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Third Quarter Fiscal 2025, NVIDIA, November 20, 2024, https://nvidianews.nvidia.com
8 NVDA, ORATS, January 3, 2024, https://dashboard.orats.com
9 NVIDIA CEO: ‘This Year, Every Industry Will Become a Technology Industry’, NVIDIA, Rory Kelleher, January 12, 2024, https://blogs.nvidia.com
10 More Than 40% of S&P 500 Companies Cited “AI” on Earnings Calls for Q2, FactSet, John Butters, September 13, 2024, https://insight.factset.com
11 NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), YahooFinance, January 3, 2025, https://finance.yahoo.com
12 Bank of America retains Nvidia stock as Top Pick heading into CES next week, Investing.com, Vahid Karaahmetovic, January 2, 2025, https://www.investing.com
Twitter: @ChristineLShort
The author may hold positions in mentioned securities. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
