The following research was contributed to by Christine Short, VP of Research at Wall Street Horizon.
The bulls cleared another hurdle. The first-quarter earnings season has been strong. With 92% of S&P 500 companies reporting, the EPS beat rate is 78%, near the five-year average. More impressive is the updated Q1 year-over-year earnings growth rate, which, according to FactSet, now stands at 5.4%, significantly above the 3.4% figure from the end of March.1 What’s more, YoY EPS growth estimates for Q2 have ticked up, from 9.0% on March 31 to 9.6% as of May 3. Calendar-year S&P 500® per-share earnings are now seen near $244, actually rising in recent weeks, bucking the normal trend of declining EPS forecasts during a given year.
Where’s the Slowdown?
Continued decent consumer spending, heavy corporate capex trends (thank you, AI), and beefy profit margins all contribute to an environment conducive to both resilient economic output and record company profits. And though the first-quarter US GDP print came in lower than expected, mainly due to weak net export activity and a decline in business inventory, early signs point to an acceleration in the economic expansion rate this quarter.2
Rate Cuts on the Horizon in Europe
So, despite some dire predictions of tepid US real GDP growth in 2024, particularly during the middle of the year, it appears to be a pretty good time if you’re a CEO at a multinational corporation. (Alas, we are merely data analysts and researchers!) But things are fine on that front, too, as the unemployment rate in the US remains not far from multi-decade lows while the inflation trajectory is generally heading in the right direction. There are even better consumer price trends in overseas markets with the potential for rate cuts sooner rather than later in some developed ex-US economies.3
Stocks Snap Back, Foreign Markets Perk Up
In terms of the markets, equities seemed to have gotten through a dose of April malaise. The S&P 500 notched a strong start to May while other countries, namely the UK, have seen their home indexes notch fresh highs.4 Even China, a chronic underperformer since early 2021, has enjoyed a quick bullish turnaround, now up by more than 30% from its January nadir. There are clearly some macro tailwinds at play, but investors surely know that volatility can lurk right around the corner. There was a similar feeling of optimism early last summer before a 10% correction reset the playing field before year-end.
Conference Activity Heats Back Up
With the bulk of Q1 earnings reports in the bag, the focus shifts to reading between the lines at corporate conferences. Investment meeting gatherings of top executives, thought leaders, industry experts, and Wall Street analysts often produce key insights into the state of narrow niches of the economy. By piecing together tidbits of intel here and there, investors can gain a better understanding of where risk and opportunity may soon assert themselves. Here are some of the major investor conferences on the docket for the balance of the second quarter (dates subject to change):
Information Technology & Communication Services
May 14: Google I/O Developers Conference
May 20: JP Morgan 52nd Annual TMT Global Technology Media and Communications Conference
May 29: Goldman Sachs Global Semiconductor Conference
June 4: Bank of America Global Technology Conference
June 5: Citi Regional Tech Conference
June 10: Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC)
June 12: Bank of America Securities Global Technology Conference
June 12: Mizuho Technology Conference
Health Care
May 14: Capital One Securities 1st Annual Biotech/Biopharma Disrupters Event
May 14: RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference
May 14: Bank of America Securities Global Healthcare Conference
May 23: UBS Obesity Therapeutics Day
June 5: Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference
June 5: UBS Health Care Services Cape Cod Summit
June 10: Goldman Sachs 45th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
June 18: Citi’s European Healthcare Conference, London
June 20: JP Morgan European Healthcare Conference
Consumer Discretionary & Consumer Staples
May 14: Goldman Sachs Global Staples Forum
May 18: National Restaurant Association Show
May 20: Electric Vehicle Innovation Summit
May 21: HSBC Consumer Conference
May 23: HSBC 17th Luxury Goods Conference
June 4: Morgan Stanley 2nd Annual Travel & Leisure Conference
June 4: Bank of America Securities Housing Symposium
June 4: Deutsche Bank 21st Annual dbAccess Global Consumer Conference
June 11: Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference
June 11: Evercore ISI 4th Annual Consumer & Retail Conference
Financials & Real Estate
May 14: Wells Fargo Financial Services Investor Conference
May 14: JP Morgan Insurance Forum
May 14: Janney Montgomery Scott Forth Annual Real Estate Conference
May 21: Barclays Leveraged Finance Conference
May 29: RBC Capital Markets Virtual Mid-Cap Bank Fixed Income Investor Conference (virtual)
May 29: Deutsche Bank AG 14th Annual Global Financial Services Conference
June 10: Morgan Stanley 15th Annual US Financials Payments & CRE Conference
Industrials
May 15: Bank of America Global Industrials Conference
May 21: Wolfe Research 17th Annual Global Transportation & Industrials Conference
June 18: Citi Global Freight Field Trip
June 11: Wells Fargo Industrials Conference
June 24: Goldman Sachs Business Services, Transport & Leisure Conference
Energy & Utilities
May 14: Citi’s Energy and Climate Technology Conference
May 16: Deutsche Bank Global Solar & Clean Tech Conference (virtual)
May 16: RBC Future of Water Conference
May 18: American Gas Association (AGA) Financial Forum
May 20: JP Morgan Hydrogen Week (virtual)
June 3: RBC Capital Markets Global Energy, Power, and Infrastructure Conference
June 6: Bank of America Energy Credit Conference
June 11: Evercore ISI 3rd Annual Global Clean Energy & Transition Technologies Summit
June 17: JP Morgan Energy, Power & Renewables Conference
Materials
May 14: Citi Chemicals Conference
May 14: JP Morgan Homebuilding & Building Products Conference
May 21: JP Morgan Homebuilders Day
May 22: Raymond James Silver Equities Conference
May 28: KeyBanc Capital Markets Industrials & Basic Materials Conference
June 13: RBC Capital Markets Global Mining and Materials Conference
Regional
May 14: Morgan Stanley EEMEA Conference
May 15: JP Morgan European Technology, Media, and Telecoms TMT Conference
May 16: Morgan Stanley ASEAN Conference (virtual)
May 24: Morgan Stanley Flagship Asia Tech Corporate Day
May 27: UBS Asian Investment Conference
May 31: Citi Pan Asia Regional Investor Conference
June 3: Goldman Sachs Annual European Financial Services Conference
June 5: Morgan Stanley China TMT Conference
June 6: JP Morgan Frontier Markets Fixed Income Conference
Investor Specific & Multi-Sector
May 14: UBS Pan European Small and Mid-Cap Conference
May 15: JP Morgan Global Markets Conference
May 29: Bank of America Securities Emerging Markets Debt & Equity Conference
June 4: Stifel Cross Sector Insight Conference
June 5: Deutsche Bank dbAccess 15th Annual Global Industrials, Materials & Building Products Conference
June 11: Bank of America C-Suite SMID Conference
June 12: Sidoti June Small-Cap Conference
June 26: Morningstar Investment Conference
Sources:
[1] Earnings Insight, FactSet, John Butters, May 10, 2024, https://advantage.factset.com
[2] Slow, but solid US economic growth anticipated in Q1; inflation likely heats up, Reuters, Lucia Mutikani, April 25, 2024, https://www.reuters.com
[3] Euro zone inflation steady at 2.4%, keeping June rate cut in play as economy returns to growth, CNBC, Jenni Reid, April 30, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com
[4] FTSE 100 hits record high, pound slips ahead of BoE verdict, Reuters, Pranav Kashyap, Shubham Batra,Khushi Singh, May 8, 2024, https://www.reuters.com
Wall Street Horizon provides institutional traders and investors with the most accurate and comprehensive forward-looking event data. Covering 9,000 companies worldwide, we offer more than 40 corporate event types via a range of delivery options from machine-readable files to API solutions to streaming feeds. By keeping clients apprised of critical market-moving events and event revisions, our data empowers financial professionals to take advantage of or avoid the ensuing volatility.
Christine Short, VP of Research at Wall Street Horizon, is focused on publishing research on Wall Street Horizon event data covering 9,000 global equities in the marketplace. Over the past 15 years in the financial data industry, her research has been widely featured in financial news outlets including regular appearances on networks such as CNBC and Fox to talk corporate earnings and the economy.
Twitter: @ChristineLShort
The author may hold positions in mentioned securities. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
