Stock Market Outlook for October 24, 2016 –
S&P 500 futures are bouncing at the moment and testing what I suspect is the breakout level for intraday trading today: 2143. Holding that level will be key today. Formations on the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) say that pullbacks will hold support as we continue range bound activity. Price resistance has moved upward and now sits between 2151- 2156 for futures, but the big number above is 2160. Price support on S&P 500 futures has moved a bit higher: near 2125-2127.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
TODAY’S RANGE OF MOTION
S&P 500 Futures Outlook Trading Chart – October 24
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2143.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2138.75 with upward momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2138.75 are 2141.5, 2143.5, 2145.75, 2147.25, 2149.5, 2152, and 2156.5.
Downside trades – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2141.5, or at the failed retest of 2147.5(watch for the higher low if this is attempted) with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 2147.5 give us the targets of 2143.75, 2141.5, 2138.5, 2136.5, 2134.25, 2130.75, 2126.5, 2123, and 2120. As always, additional targets will be in the Members only portion of the morning blog.
Nasdaq Futures
The NQ_F continues to perform better than the ES_F and is holding its breakout levels. The larger formation is still bound by resistance above near 4889-4894. Today’s support sits in the region between 4849 and 4853.
Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4865.75, or a positive retest of 4849 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4849 are 4853, 4857.25, 4862.25, 4865, 4870.25, 4875, and 4880.5.
Downside trades – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4865(needs negative momentum here for continuation), or at the failed retest of 4870 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 4870 are 4865.75, 4861.25, 4857.5, 4854.5, 4851.25, and 4845.75 to 4842.5.
Crude Oil
Oil has faded once again into 50.3 this morning and appears to be heading lower as traders continue to trade a range of motion. We hold 49.6 at this stage and that seems to be the line in the sand for bullish versus bearish sentiment. I contend that this chart will remain range bound until after the election and OPEC meeting next month. Big spikes in either direction will likely drift back into the region between 49.6 and 52.42 for the week.
Trading ranges for crude oil should still hold between 49.6 and 52.42 in the current pattern.
Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 50.24, or at a positive retest off 49.96 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 49.96 are 50.24, 50.55, 50.84, 51.02, 51.36, 51.65, 51.82, 52.02, and 52.24 to 52.42.
Downside trades can be staged on the failed retest of 50.52, or at the failed retest of 50.96 with negative divergence. Targets from 50.96 are 50.64, 50.38, 50.24, 50.11, and 49.96.
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If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
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The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
