S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For October 10

Stock Market Outlook for October 10, 2016 –

The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) showed some resiliency on Friday while closing lower (but well off its lows). This type of price action highlights the market’s uncertainty and tight trading range. Overnight trading into Monday morning shows S&P 500 futures continuing to hold higher lows. This is somewhat of a surprise to me, but the range is calling the shots. Sellers are still piled up around 2156 on S&P 500 futures, with neutral momentum – this suggests that breaches higher should see a retest. Price resistance above that look to be near 2161. The breakout level remains 2168. Price support levels hold at 2146 and then below at 2140, for now.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

TODAY’S RANGE OF MOTION

S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For October 10

Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2157.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2146.25 with upward momentum. Charts continue to be congested in these price ranges, so trading is likely to be choppy. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2146.25 are 2148.75, 2151.25, 2155.5, 2157.5, 2160.25, 2163.25, and 2167.5 to 2172.

Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2148.5, or at the failed retest of 2155 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 2155 give us the targets 2151.5, 2148.25, 2145, 2141.25, 2136.25, 2134.25, 2132.5 and 2130.5 to 2122.5.

Nasdaq Futures

The NQ_F sits near breakout levels above 4868, with slightly bullish momentum. This suggests that buyers are poised to move ahead, but a clear line of sellers sit in their way near 4883 to 4886. Support holds at 4853, with 4848, and 4836 below that. We remain range bound until the breach and retest of the supports or resistance.

Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4876.25, or a positive retest of 4862.25 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4862.25 are 4867.5, 4870.25, 4876.25, 4878.5, 4881.25, 4884, and 4887.25 to 4890.

Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4862.25, or at the failed retest of 4874.5 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 4874.5 are 4870.75, 4865.5, 4862.25, 4857.75, 4852.75, 4849.75, 4845.75, 4841.75, 4836.25, 4830.5, and 4824.75.

Crude Oil

As I suspected on Friday, the retracement was fairly deep, but oil, in customary fashion these days has bounced sharply off the 49.15 low made yesterday evening. Sellers are sitting near 50.16, and near 50.57, with 50.74, and 50.9 above. Buyers should hold 49.4 to 48.7, but trades have been choppy at the edges of the formation.

Trading ranges on crude oil should hold between 48.7 and 50.9 in the current pattern.

Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 50.36, or at a positive retest off 49.4 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 49.4 are 49.67, 49.75, 49.96, 50.16, 50.32, 50.54, 50.74, and 50.9.

Downside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 50.35, or at the failed retest of 50.74 with negative divergence. Targets from 50.74 are 50.52, 50.34, 50.16, 49.96, 49.74, 49.52, 49.3, and 48.97.

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If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.