S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For October 4

Stock Market Outlook for October 4, 2016 –

After yesterday’s behavior, investors remain in an undecided space. The S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) is still quite range bound. Price support remains at 2151 on S&P 500 futures, though we could break and recover the same way we did yesterday. We are building a battleground between 2153 and 2157.75. The breakout level remains 2168 on futures, and a hold above this level will empower buyers to press the chart to higher levels. The environment remains tentative, and should not establish clear trend without retracement of breakouts or breakdowns.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

TODAY’S RANGE OF MOTION

S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook For October 4

Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2160.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2153.25 with upward momentum. Charts continue to be congested in these price ranges, so trading is likely to be choppy. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2153.25 are 2156, 2157.75, 2161.5, 2164, 2167, 2169, 2171.5, 2174.5 and 2176.5.

Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2153, or at the failed retest of 2157.5 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 2157.5 give us the targets 2154.25, 2151.5, 2148.25, 2145.5, 2141.75, 2137.5, 2135.75, 2132.75 and 2130.5. As always, additional targets are on my blog.

Nasdaq Futures

The NQ_F is presenting stronger than the ES_F, and sits above the open of the prior day. We also have a higher high than yesterday, leading me to believe that breakouts are likely to be on the horizon.  Support holds at 4850, with 4835 below that. Resistance sits between 4880 and 4890 again today. Momentum is mixed, so breakouts are not likely to hold, while pullbacks into support will continue to be bought.

Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4874.75, or a positive retest of 4852.75 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 4852.75 are 4857.5, 4860.5, 4864, 4867.5, 4870.25, 4874.25, 4874.75, 4876.25, 4880.25, 4884, and 4887.25 to 4890.

Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4865, or at the failed retest of 4874.5 with negative divergence. Retracements into lower levels from 4874.5 are 4871.50, 4867.25, 4864.25, 4862, 4855.75, 4852, 4848.75, 4844, 4840.75, 4835.75, 4829.5, and 4824.75.

Crude Oil

API report will be released after the close today. The WTI contract we trade sits in a tight pattern. Resistance sits at 49.12 for the second day, and support for the week should hold at 46.4. Support for the day is 48.3, with 48.04 below. Buyers are holding an aggressive stance, and pullbacks ought to be bought.

Trading ranges for crude oil futures should hold between 47.78 and 49.12 in the current pattern. Traders are increasingly skittish, so be very careful on the edges of these formations, as they could continue swiftly in the direction of motion.

Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 48.7, or at a positive retest off 48.3 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 48.3 are 48.54, 48.84, 49.04, 49.2, 49.48, 49.74, 49.92, and 50.12.

Downside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 48.24, or at the failed retest of 48.6 with negative divergence. Targets from 48.6 are 48.41, 48.27, 48.08, 47.89, 47.74, 47.48, 47.14, 46.98, 46.71, 46.6, and 46.42.

If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.