S&P 500 Futures Trading Outlook for July 7

Trading outlook for S&P 500 futures July 7 – The chart has held new support levels overnight near 2088 – old resistance becomes new support here, but we’ll need to watch the region closely. Momentum shifted long yesterday, and is holding so far. This may keep the cash S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) and S&P 500 futures (ES_F) afloat at elevated levels.

At the current level of 2092 on S&P 500 futures, we are likely to hold any pullbacks into support. There is a line of support near 2081.5 and another at 2088. Meanwhile, resistance sits at 2099.75 – if momentum breaks this level, we will likely see 2104.75.

See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.

RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION

E-mini S&P Futures

S&P 500 futures July 7 Trading Outlook (ES_F) –

Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2088.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2085 with positive momentum. Be very careful watching for sellers showing up near 2088.5, as failure there off the 2085 bounce could signal that sellers are collecting strength. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2085 are, 2088.5, 2091.5, 2094.25, 2097.25, 2099.75, 2101.75, and if we expand again, we could stretch to 2104.5, 2107.75 and 2112.5.

Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2084.25 or at the failed retest of 2091.5 with negative divergence. It is important to watch for higher lows to develop with the 2091.5 entry, as the chart may be attempting a retest of the recent high under the current bullish environment. Retracement into lower levels from 2091.5 gives us the targets 2088.5, 2084.75, 2081.75, 2078.75, 2074.75, 2072.5, 2070.25, 2067.75, 2064.25, 2061.5, and 2054.75, if sellers take over.

Have a look at the Fibonacci levels marked in the blog for more targets.

Nasdaq Futures

Nasdaq futures trading outlook for July 7, 2016 –New recent highs overnight were rejected, and we sit in congested breakout areas near 4437. Support levels to watch are 4427 and 4416. Resistance sits in a wide choppy space between 4455 and 4479.25.

Upside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4436.75, or a positive retest of 4427.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Watch for the lower high to develop near 4444-4448, if sellers exercise more power intraday. Targets from 4427.5 are 4431.25, 4435.75, 4438.5, 4442.5, 4448.5, 4454, and 4466.75, if buyers overpower the line of sellers in the way.

Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4433.5 or at the failed retest of 4448.75 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 4448.5 gives us the targets 4441.75, 4437.25, 4433.5, 4427.5, 4421.75, 4416.5, 4409.75, 4403.5, 4398, 4395.5, 4391.5, 4389.5, 4386.25, 4384, 4378.25, 4373.5, 4368.75, 4364.75, 4358.5 and 4348.25, if sellers resume control.

Crude Oil

Crude Oil futures trading outlook for July 7, 2016  (CL_F) –

Oil prices bounced nicely off clean support near 46 yesterday and has held steady for 2 points of upside gain.  The EIA report is today, and the chart sits at resistance near 48.

The trading range on crude oil today appear to be 46.04 to 48.4, with buyers trying to get us back inside 48.

Upside trades on crude oil can be staged on the positive retest of 47.92, or at a bounce off 46.12 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 46.12 are 46.32, 46.64, 46.83, 47.12, 47.34, 47.56, 47.9, 48.12, 48.34, 48.56, and 48.84.

Downside trades on crude oil can be staged on the failed retest of 46.02, or at the failed retest of 48.2 with negative divergence. Targets from 48.2 are 47.9, 47.68, 47.46, 47.23, 46.9, 46.44, 46.27, 46.02, 45.84, 45.68, and 45.25, if selling really takes hold.

If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.

As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.

Twitter:  @AnneMarieTrades

The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.