S&P 500 Futures Outlook for July 6, 2016 – Overnight trading on the S&P 500 futures gives us the range to watch today with support at 2067, and resistance near 2086. Both of these levels could easily be broken as we see the market swinging around.
I am officially saying that this whipsaw behavior, though being nicely telegraphed by levels of support and resistance seen in the charts, is not good price action. It is a picture of a skittish mindset – disjointed, mixed, and undecided behavior. These jumpy moves that make me very cautious about big position sizes, in general. At the current level of 2071, we are likely to see buyers stage a bounce, and above 2077.75, we could easily stretch into the premarket highs. Sellers have been extremely aggressive at the 2085 region, and will be able to exercise relative control with the charts below 2090.
See today’s economic calendar with a rundown of releases.
RANGE OF TODAY’S MOTION
E-mini S&P Futures
S&P 500 futures outlook for July 6, 2016 (ES_F) –
Upside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 2088.5, or a positive retest of the bounce off 2068 with positive momentum. Be very careful watching for sellers showing up near 2078, as failure there off the 2068 bounce could signal that sellers still have strength. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 2068 are 2072.25, 2074.25, 2077.25, 2081.25, 2086, 2088.5, 2091.5, 2094.25, 2097.25, 2099.75, 2101.75, and if we expand again, we could stretch to 2107.75 and 2112.5.
Downside trades on S&P 500 futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 2074.75 or at the failed retest of 2085.75 with negative divergence. It is important to watch for higher lows to develop with the 2085.75 entry, as the chart may be attempting a retest of the recent high under the current bullish environment. Retracement into lower levels from 2085.75 gives us the targets 2081.75, 2078.75, 2074.75, 2072.5, 2070.25, 2067.75, 2064.25, 2061.5, and 2054.75, if sellers take over.
Nasdaq Futures
Trading outlook for Nasdaq futures for July 6, 2016 (NQ_F) –vAs with the ES_F, buyers came in swiftly near yesterday’s close (all the action looked much like a squeeze to me), and then, just a swiftly faded into the congestion of the prior day before heading lower. We drifted past support of 4372, but as most support lines of import behave, the charts bounced several times off the level, and at this writing we sit just above 4372.  Resistance now lies near 4416- 4410- and support sits in a wide choppy space between 4358 and 4368.
Upside trades Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit on the positive retest of 4382.75, or a positive retest of 4365.5 with positive momentum. I use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Watch for the lower high to develop near 4374-4380.75, if sellers exercise more power intraday. Targets from 4365.5 are 4372.5, 4378, 4386.5, 4394, 4397.5, 4402.25, 4408.75, 4410.75, 4412.5, 4415, 4420.5, 4424.25, 4431.25, 4435.75, and 4438.5, if buyers overpower the line of sellers in the way.
Downside trades on Nasdaq futures – Favorable setups sit below the failed retest of 4373.5 or at the failed retest of 4410.75 with negative divergence. Retracement into lower levels from 4410.5 gives us the targets 4407.75, 4403.5, 4398, 4395.5, 4391.5, 4389.5, 4386.25, 4384, 4378.25, 4373.5, 4368.75, 4364.75, 4358.5 and 4348.25, if sellers resume control.
Crude Oil
Futures outlook for Crude Oil for July 6, 2016 (CL_F) –
Crude oil prices gave way to increased selling yesterday, and oil is now looking at 46.24 as support. It was briefly broken and recovered – buyers will battle to hold that region as a buy zone. The API and EIA reports have been pushed off by a day due to the holiday, so we’ll look for the API report today after the close. The EIA report will be tomorrow.
Trading ranges on crude oil futures are 45.6 to 47.9. However, if the selling pressure continues, there is a strong likelihood that we extend down into 44.34
Upside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the positive retest of 47.12, or at a bounce off 46.64 with positive momentum. I often use the 30min to 1hr chart for the breach and retest mechanic. Targets from 46.64 are 46.83, 47.12, 47.34, 47.56, 47.9, 48.12, 48.34, 48.56, and 48.84.
Downside trades on crude oil futures can be staged on the failed retest of 46.2, or at the failed retest of 46.8 with negative divergence. Targets from 46.8 are 46.44, 46.27, 46.02, 45.84, 45.68, 45.25; and if selling really takes hold, we’ll see 44.34. Though I did suspect selling, I am surprised at the speed and the failure to retrace. This normally suggests to me that there is a bounce zone on the horizon here – into resistance, but a bounce nevertheless.
If you’re interested in the live trading room, it is now primarily stock market futures content, though we do track heavily traded stocks and their likely daily trajectories as well – we begin at 9am with a morning report and likely chart movements along with trade setups for the day.
As long as the trader keeps himself aware of support and resistance levels, risk can be very adequately managed to play in either direction as bottom picking remains a behavior pattern that is developing with value buyers and speculative traders.
Twitter:Â Â @AnneMarieTrades
The author trades stock market futures every day and may have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
